房屋的宏观经济层面

C. Leung, Cho Yiu Joe Ng
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引用次数: 16

摘要

本文总结了房地产市场宏观经济方面的研究。就宏观经济风格化的事实而言,本文表明,在全球金融危机(GFC)之后,就商业周期频率而言,宏观经济变量(MV)(如实际GDP和通货膨胀率)与住房市场变量(HMV)(如房价和空置率)之间的关联普遍下降。然而,有一些宏观金融变量,如不同的利差,在全球金融危机之后表现出与HMV的强烈关联。对于中期商业周期频率,一些模式(但不是所有模式)占上风。这些“新的风格化的事实”表明,重新考虑和完善现有的“宏观住房”理论是合适的。本文还对相关的学术文献进行了回顾,以加深我们对宏观住房与金融联系演变的理解。
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Macroeconomic Aspects of Housing
This article summarizes research on the macroeconomic aspects of the housing market. In terms of the macroeconomic stylized facts, this article demonstrates that with respect to business cycle frequency, there was a general decrease in the association between macroeconomic variables (MV), such as the real GDP and inflation rate, and housing market variables (HMV), such as the housing price and the vacancy rate, following the global financial crisis (GFC). However, there are macro-finance variables, such as different interest rate spreads, that exhibited a strong association with the HMV following the GFC. For the medium-term business cycle frequency, some but not all patterns prevail. These “new stylized facts” suggest that a reconsideration and refinement of existing “macro-housing” theories would be appropriate. This article also provides a review of the corresponding academic literature, which may enhance our understanding of the evolving macro-housing–finance linkage.
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