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The 1918–1919 Influenza Pandemic in Economic History 1918-1919年经济史上的流感大流行
Pub Date : 2022-01-28 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.682
M. Karlsson, Daniel Kühnle, Nikolaos Prodromidis
Due to the similarities with the COVID–19 pandemic, there has been a renewed interest in the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic, which represents the most severe pandemic of the 20th century with an estimated total death toll ranging between 30 and 100 million. This rapidly growing literature in economics and economic history has devoted attention to contextual determinants of excess mortality in the pandemic; to the impact of the pandemic on economic growth, inequality, and a range of other outcomes; and to the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions. Estimating the effects of the pandemic, or the effects of countermeasures, is challenging. There may not be much exogenous variation to go by, and the historical data sets available are typically small and often of questionable quality. Yet the 1918–1919 pandemic offers a unique opportunity to learn how large pandemics play out in the long run. The studies evaluating effects of the pandemic, or of policies enacted to combat it, typically rely on some version of difference-in-differences, or instrumental variables. The assumptions required for these designs to achieve identification of causal effects have rarely been systematically evaluated in this particular historical context. Using a purpose-built dataset covering the entire Swedish population, such an assessment is provided here. The empirical analysis indicates that the identifying assumptions used in previous work may indeed be satisfied. However, the results cast some doubt on the general external validity of previous findings as the analysis fails to replicate several results in the Swedish context. These disagreements highlight the need for additional studies in other populations and contexts which puts the spotlight on further digitization and linkage of historical datasets.
由于与COVID-19大流行的相似之处,1918-1919年流感大流行重新引起了人们的关注,这是20世纪最严重的大流行,估计总死亡人数在3000万至1亿之间。经济和经济史方面迅速增长的文献关注了大流行中死亡率过高的背景决定因素;为大流行对经济增长、不平等和一系列其他后果的影响;以及非药物干预的影响。估计大流行的影响或对策的影响是具有挑战性的。可能没有太多的外生变量可以参考,而且可用的历史数据集通常很小,而且质量经常有问题。然而,1918-1919年的大流行提供了一个独特的机会,可以了解大规模流行病在长期内的发展情况。评估大流行影响的研究,或评估为抗击疫情而制定的政策的研究,通常依赖于某种形式的差异中的差异,或工具变量。在这种特殊的历史背景下,这些设计为确定因果关系所需要的假设很少得到系统的评估。使用覆盖整个瑞典人口的专用数据集,这里提供了这样的评估。实证分析表明,以前工作中使用的识别假设确实可以满足。然而,由于分析未能复制瑞典背景下的几个结果,结果对先前发现的一般外部有效性产生了一些怀疑。这些分歧突出了在其他人群和背景下进行进一步研究的必要性,这将重点放在进一步数字化和历史数据集的联系上。
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引用次数: 0
The Economic Implications of Training for Firm Performance 培训对企业绩效的经济影响
Pub Date : 2022-01-28 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.657
Pedro S. Martins
A small literature on the relationship between employee training and firm performance is currently emerging. This line of research is particularly promising given the underexplored potential of training to drive productivity, wages, and employment. Until recently, training was regarded as a costly and risky investment because workers may leave their firm after being trained. However, studies on labor and education economics have found that training results in high returns for firms and that the costs of training can be recouped in a relatively short time. These results follow from different econometric identification approaches, including a small but growing number of randomized controlled trials. Moreover, most training is of a general nature and therefore applicable in other firms, which is at odds with the original theory of training but consistent with novel models that emphasize labor market power. There are a number of possibilities for future research, including a better understanding of the heterogeneity and patterns of training contents and formats across firms and workers, the differentiation of the effects of training along such dimensions, the role of labor market competition in driving training, the extent to which the productivity effects of training are shared with employees, the role of labor market institutions (including minimum wage, collective bargaining, and occupational licensing) in the dimensions above, and the firm performance effects of training provided to unemployed job seekers (as opposed to employees). Evaluation of the public training programs developed during the Covid-19 pandemic crisis and new forms of training in the context of the growth of remote work also merit further investigation.
关于员工培训和公司绩效之间关系的少量文献目前正在出现。考虑到培训在推动生产力、工资和就业方面的潜力尚未得到充分开发,这一研究方向尤其有希望。直到最近,培训还被认为是一项昂贵而有风险的投资,因为员工可能在培训后离开公司。然而,劳动经济学和教育经济学的研究发现,培训给企业带来了很高的回报,培训成本可以在较短的时间内收回。这些结果来自不同的计量经济学鉴定方法,包括少量但数量不断增加的随机对照试验。此外,大多数培训具有一般性,因此适用于其他公司,这与最初的培训理论不一致,但与强调劳动力市场力量的新模型一致。未来的研究有许多可能性,包括更好地理解培训内容和形式在企业和工人之间的异质性和模式,沿着这些维度的培训效果的差异,劳动力市场竞争在推动培训中的作用,培训的生产力效应在多大程度上与员工分享,劳动力市场制度的作用(包括最低工资,集体谈判,和职业许可),以及为失业求职者(相对于雇员)提供培训对企业绩效的影响。评估在2019冠状病毒病大流行危机期间制定的公共培训计划以及远程工作增长背景下的新培训形式也值得进一步研究。
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引用次数: 2
Lobbying in the Political Economy of International Trade 国际贸易政治经济学中的游说
Pub Date : 2021-12-22 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.706
Devashish Mitra
While the role of lobbying in trade policy determination has been studied in a formal way since the early 1980s, it was the pathbreaking 1994 work by Grossman and Helpman in the following decade that led many scholars, using that framework (often with some modifications), to study many interesting political economy issues in the trade policy arena. Importantly, Grossman and Helpman were also the first to provide microfoundations to lobbying within a multisectoral, specific-factors framework. Moreover, the industry-level protection they derive is an empirically estimable function of measurable industry characteristics and other political and economic factors. With everything else held constant, organized sectors are able to obtain higher protection than unorganized sectors, with organized-sector protection inversely related to import penetration and import demand elasticity. Grossman and Helpman’s work gave an impetus to theory-driven empirical work in the political economy of trade policy, including the empirical investigation of the Grossman–Helpman model itself and its many extensions. There is now also a fairly large literature trying to explain the unrealistically high empirical estimates of the model’s parameters (representing the proportion of population politically organized and the weight the government attaches to aggregate welfare relative to political contributions). Extensions for empirical investigation that include bringing in competition between upstream and downstream lobbies, imperfect capturing of nontariff barrier (NTB) rents by the government, foreign lobbies, the possibility of misclassfication of sectors into organized and unorganized, and so forth partially correct the unrealistic parameter estimates. In addition, there are extensions that have been applied toward explaining policy changes and puzzles. Those extensions deal with lobby formation, trade agreements, unilateralism versus reciprocity in trade policy, lobbying for protection in declining industries, firm-level lobbying, the choice of policy instruments, and so forth. Despite so much work already done on lobbying and trade policy, the existing literature is deficient in the study of the choice of instruments, the antitrade bias in trade policy, and informational lobbying.
虽然自20世纪80年代初以来,游说在贸易政策决定中的作用已经以正式的方式进行了研究,但直到1994年格罗斯曼和赫尔普曼在接下来的十年中开创性的工作,才导致许多学者使用该框架(通常进行一些修改)来研究贸易政策领域中许多有趣的政治经济问题。重要的是,格罗斯曼和赫普曼也是第一个在多部门、具体因素框架内为游说提供微观基础的人。此外,他们得出的行业层面的保护是可测量的行业特征和其他政治经济因素的经验估计函数。在其他条件不变的情况下,有组织部门比无组织部门能够获得更高的保护,有组织部门的保护与进口渗透和进口需求弹性成反比。格罗斯曼和Helpman的工作推动了贸易政策政治经济学中理论驱动的实证工作,包括对格罗斯曼- Helpman模型本身及其许多扩展的实证调查。现在也有相当多的文献试图解释模型参数(代表政治组织的人口比例和政府对总福利相对于政治捐款的权重)的不切实际的高经验估计。实证调查的扩展包括引入上游和下游游说团体之间的竞争,政府对非关税壁垒(NTB)租金的不完美捕获,外国游说团体,将部门错误分类为有组织和无组织的可能性,等等,部分纠正了不切实际的参数估计。此外,还有一些扩展用于解释政策变化和困惑。这些扩展涉及游说组织、贸易协定、贸易政策中的单边主义与互惠主义、为保护衰落的工业而游说、公司层面的游说、政策工具的选择等等。尽管在游说和贸易政策方面已经做了很多工作,但现有文献在工具选择、贸易政策中的反贸易偏见和信息游说方面的研究不足。
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引用次数: 1
The Macroeconomics of Stratification 分层的宏观经济学
Pub Date : 2021-12-22 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.747
S. Seguino
Stratification economics, which has emerged as a new subfield of research on inequality, is distinguished by a system-level analysis. It explores the role of power in influencing the processes and institutions that produce hierarchical economic and social orderings based on ascriptive characteristics. Macroeconomic factors play a role in buttressing stratification, especially by race and gender. Among the macroeconomic policy levers that produce and perpetuate intergroup inequality are monetary policy, fiscal expenditures, exchange rate policy, industrial policy, and trade, investment, and financial policies. These policies interact with a stratification “infrastructure,” comprised of racial and gender ideologies, norms, and stereotypes that are internalized at the individual level and act as a “stealth” factor in reproducing hierarchies. In stratified societies, racial and gender norms and stereotypes act to justify various forms of exclusion from prized economic assets such as good jobs. For example, gendered and racial stereotypes contribute to job segregation, with subordinated groups largely sequestered in the secondary labor market where wages are low and jobs are insecure. The net effect is that subordinated groups serve as shock absorbers that insulate members of the dominant group from the impact of negative macroeconomic phenomena such as unemployment and economic volatility. Further, racial and gender inequality have economy-wide effects, and play a role in determining the rate of economic growth and overall performance of an economy. The impact of intergroup inequality on macro-level outcomes depends on a country’s economic structure. While under some conditions, intergroup inequality acts as a stimulus to economic growth, under other conditions, it undermines societal well-being. Countries are not locked into a path whereby inequality has a positive or negative effect on growth. Rather, through their policy decisions, countries can choose the low road (stratification) or the high road (intergroup inequality). Thus, even if intergroup inequality has been a stimulus to growth in the past, it is possible to choose an equity-led growth path.
分层经济学是研究不平等的一个新分支,其特点是系统层面的分析。它探讨了权力在影响产生基于归属特征的等级制经济和社会秩序的过程和制度中的作用。宏观经济因素在支持分层,特别是种族和性别的分层中发挥了作用。产生和延续群体间不平等的宏观经济政策杠杆包括货币政策、财政支出、汇率政策、产业政策以及贸易、投资和金融政策。这些政策与分层“基础设施”相互作用,这些“基础设施”由种族和性别意识形态、规范和刻板印象组成,这些意识形态、规范和刻板印象在个人层面被内化,并作为再现等级制度的“隐形”因素。在分层的社会中,种族和性别规范和刻板印象为各种形式的排除在诸如好工作等珍贵经济资产之外提供了理由。例如,性别和种族的陈规定型观念助长了职业隔离,从属群体基本上被隔离在工资低、工作不安全的二级劳动力市场。最终的结果是,从属群体充当了减震器,使主导群体的成员免受失业和经济波动等负面宏观经济现象的影响。此外,种族和性别不平等对整个经济都有影响,并在决定经济增长率和经济的总体表现方面发挥作用。群体间不平等对宏观结果的影响取决于一个国家的经济结构。虽然在某些条件下,群体间不平等可以刺激经济增长,但在其他条件下,它会破坏社会福祉。各国并没有陷入不平等对经济增长产生积极或消极影响的道路。相反,通过他们的政策决定,各国可以选择低道路(分层)或高道路(群体间不平等)。因此,即使群体间的不平等在过去刺激了经济增长,也有可能选择一条由公平主导的增长道路。
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引用次数: 0
Applications of Web Scraping in Economics and Finance 网络抓取在经济和金融中的应用
Pub Date : 2021-12-22 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.652
P. Śpiewanowski, Oleksandr Talavera, Linh Vi
The 21st-century economy is increasingly built around data. Firms and individuals upload and store enormous amount of data. Most of the produced data is stored on private servers, but a considerable part is made publicly available across the 1.83 billion websites available online. These data can be accessed by researchers using web-scraping techniques. Web scraping refers to the process of collecting data from web pages either manually or using automation tools or specialized software. Web scraping is possible and relatively simple thanks to the regular structure of the code used for websites designed to be displayed in web browsers. Websites built with HTML can be scraped using standard text-mining tools, either scripts in popular (statistical) programming languages such as Python, Stata, R, or stand-alone dedicated web-scraping tools. Some of those tools do not even require any prior programming skills. Since about 2010, with the omnipresence of social and economic activities on the Internet, web scraping has become increasingly more popular among academic researchers. In contrast to proprietary data, which might not be feasible due to substantial costs, web scraping can make interesting data sources accessible to everyone. Thanks to web scraping, the data are now available in real time and with significantly more details than what has been traditionally offered by statistical offices or commercial data vendors. In fact, many statistical offices have started using web-scraped data, for example, for calculating price indices. Data collected through web scraping has been used in numerous economic and finance projects and can easily complement traditional data sources.
21世纪的经济日益以数据为基础。公司和个人上传和存储了大量的数据。大多数生成的数据都存储在私人服务器上,但相当一部分是通过18.3亿个在线网站公开提供的。研究人员可以使用网络抓取技术访问这些数据。网页抓取是指手动或使用自动化工具或专用软件从网页收集数据的过程。网页抓取是可能的,而且相对简单,这要归功于设计用于在Web浏览器中显示的网站的代码的规则结构。使用HTML构建的网站可以使用标准的文本挖掘工具进行抓取,无论是流行的(统计)编程语言脚本,如Python、Stata、R,还是独立的专用网页抓取工具。其中一些工具甚至不需要任何先前的编程技能。大约从2010年开始,随着互联网上社会和经济活动的无处不在,网络抓取在学术研究人员中越来越受欢迎。与专有数据相比,由于巨大的成本,专有数据可能不可行,网络抓取可以使每个人都可以访问有趣的数据源。多亏了网络抓取技术,这些数据现在可以实时获得,而且比传统上由统计部门或商业数据供应商提供的数据更加详细。事实上,许多统计部门已经开始使用网络搜集的数据,例如计算价格指数。通过网络抓取收集的数据已经在许多经济和金融项目中使用,并且可以很容易地补充传统的数据源。
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引用次数: 0
Trade Finance and Payment Methods in International Trade 国际贸易中的贸易融资与支付方式
Pub Date : 2021-11-29 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.326
JaeBin Ahn
International transactions are riskier than domestic transactions for several reasons, including, but not limited to, geographical distance, longer shipping times, greater informational frictions, contract enforcement, and dispute resolution problems. Such risks stem, fundamentally, from a timing mismatch between payment and delivery in business transactions. Trade finance plays a critical role in bridging the gap, thereby overcoming greater risks inherent in international trade. It is thus even described as the lifeline of international trade, because more than 90% of international transactions involve some form of credit, insurance, or guarantee. Despite its importance in international trade, however, it was not until the great trade collapse in 2008–2009 that trade finance came to the attention of academic researchers. An emerging literature on trade finance has contributed to providing answers to questions such as: Who is responsible for financing transactions, and, hence, who would need liquidity support most to sustain international trade? This is particularly relevant in developing countries, where the lack of trade finance is often identified as the main hindrance to trade, and in times of financial crisis, when the overall drying up of trade finance could lead to a global collapse in trade.
国际交易比国内交易风险更大的原因有几个,包括但不限于地理距离、更长的运输时间、更大的信息摩擦、合同执行和争议解决问题。从根本上说,这些风险源于商业交易中付款和交付时间的不匹配。贸易融资在弥合这一差距方面发挥着关键作用,从而克服国际贸易中固有的更大风险。因此,它甚至被描述为国际贸易的生命线,因为90%以上的国际交易都涉及某种形式的信贷、保险或担保。然而,尽管贸易融资在国际贸易中具有重要意义,但直到2008-2009年的贸易大崩溃,贸易融资才引起学术研究者的注意。关于贸易融资的新兴文献有助于回答以下问题:谁负责融资交易,因此,谁最需要流动性支持来维持国际贸易?这在发展中国家尤其重要,在这些国家,缺乏贸易融资往往被认为是贸易的主要障碍,在金融危机时期,贸易融资的全面枯竭可能导致全球贸易崩溃。
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引用次数: 3
Business Cycles and Apprenticeships 商业周期和学徒制
Pub Date : 2021-11-29 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.655
Samuel Muehlemann, Stefan Wolter
The economic reasons why firms engage in apprenticeship training are twofold. First, apprenticeship training is a potentially cost-effective strategy for filling a firm’s future vacancies, particularly if skilled labor on the external labor market is scarce. Second, apprentices can be cost-effective substitutes for other types of labor in the current production process. As current and expected business and labor market conditions determine a firm’s expected work volume and thus its future demand for skilled labor, they are potentially important drivers of a firm’s training decisions. Empirical studies have found that the business cycle affects apprenticeship markets. However, while the economic magnitude of these effects is moderate on average, there is substantial heterogeneity across countries, even among those that at first sight seem very similar in terms of their apprenticeship systems. Moreover, identification of business cycle effects is a difficult task. First, statistics on apprenticeship markets are often less developed than labor market statistics, making empirical analyses of demand and supply impossible in many cases. In particular, data about unfilled apprenticeship vacancies and unsuccessful applicants are paramount for assessing potential market failures and analyzing the extent to which business cycle fluctuations may amplify imbalances in apprenticeship markets. Second, the intensity of business cycle effects on apprenticeship markets is not completely exogenous, as governments typically undertake a variety of measures, which differ across countries and may change over time, to reduce the adverse effects of economic downturns on apprenticeship markets. During the economic crisis related to the COVID-19 global pandemic, many countries took unprecedented actions to support their economies in general and reacted swiftly to introduce measures such as the provision of financial subsidies for training firms or the establishment of apprenticeship task forces. As statistics on apprenticeship markets improve over time, such heterogeneity in policy measures should be exploited to improve our understanding of the business cycle and its relationship with apprenticeships.
企业从事学徒培训的经济原因是双重的。首先,学徒培训是一种潜在的成本效益策略,可以填补公司未来的空缺,特别是在外部劳动力市场上的熟练劳动力稀缺的情况下。第二,在当前的生产过程中,学徒可以成为其他类型劳动力的成本效益替代品。由于当前和预期的商业和劳动力市场条件决定了公司的预期工作量,从而决定了未来对熟练劳动力的需求,它们是公司培训决策的潜在重要驱动因素。实证研究发现,经济周期影响学徒市场。然而,尽管这些影响的经济规模平均而言是中等的,但各国之间存在着巨大的异质性,即使是那些乍一看学徒制度非常相似的国家也是如此。此外,确定经济周期的影响是一项艰巨的任务。首先,学徒市场的统计数据往往不如劳动力市场的统计数据发达,这使得在许多情况下无法对需求和供应进行实证分析。特别是,关于未填补的学徒职位空缺和未成功申请者的数据对于评估潜在的市场失灵和分析商业周期波动可能放大学徒市场失衡的程度至关重要。其次,商业周期对学徒市场的影响强度并不完全是外生的,因为政府通常会采取各种措施来减少经济衰退对学徒市场的不利影响,这些措施因国家而异,并可能随着时间而变化。在与COVID-19全球大流行相关的经济危机期间,许多国家采取了前所未有的行动,从总体上支持本国经济,并迅速采取措施,如为培训公司提供财政补贴或成立学徒工作组。随着时间的推移,学徒制市场的统计数据有所改善,应该利用政策措施中的这种异质性来提高我们对商业周期及其与学徒制关系的理解。
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引用次数: 1
Childcare and Children’s Development: Features of Effective Programs 儿童保育与儿童发展:有效方案的特征
Pub Date : 2021-11-29 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.662
J. Blanden, B. Rabe
Governments around the world are increasingly investing resources for young children, and universal provision of early childhood education and care (ECEC) has become widespread. Children’s development is affected by the investments they receive both within and outside the household. A simple theoretical framework predicts that the provision of public childcare will improve children’s development if it offers more stimulation than the care it replaces. Generally, carefully designed studies show that the provision of early childcare is beneficial, especially for children from disadvantaged backgrounds. This is in line with expectations that the alternative care experienced by children from less affluent, less educated, and immigrant backgrounds is likely to be of lower quality. Interestingly, however, studies show that the children who would benefit the most are least likely to receive care, providing a challenge for policy makers. Some programs, such as the $5-per-day childcare in Quebec, have negative effects and therefore may be of poor quality. However, comparing results across programs that vary in several dimensions makes it difficult to separate out the ingredients that are most important for success. Studies that focus on identifying the factors in ECEC that lead to the greatest benefit indicate that some standard measures such as staff qualifications are weakly linked to children’s outcomes, whereas larger staff–child ratios and researcher-measured process quality are beneficial. Spending more time in high-quality childcare from around age 3 has proved to be beneficial, whereas the effect of an increase in childcare for younger children is particularly sensitive to each program’s features and context.
世界各国政府越来越多地为幼儿投入资源,普遍提供幼儿教育和护理(ECEC)已经变得普遍。儿童的发展受到家庭内外投资的影响。一个简单的理论框架预测,如果提供公共托儿服务比它所取代的看护提供更多的刺激,它将促进儿童的发展。一般来说,精心设计的研究表明,提供早期儿童保育是有益的,特别是对来自弱势背景的儿童。这与人们的预期一致,即来自较不富裕、受教育程度较低和移民背景的儿童所经历的替代护理可能质量较低。然而,有趣的是,研究表明,受益最多的儿童最不可能得到照顾,这给政策制定者带来了挑战。一些项目,如魁北克每天5美元的托儿服务,会产生负面影响,因此可能质量很差。然而,比较在几个方面不同的项目的结果,很难区分出对成功最重要的因素。侧重于确定幼儿教育中带来最大利益的因素的研究表明,一些标准措施,如工作人员资格,与儿童的结果联系不大,而较大的工作人员与儿童的比例和研究人员衡量的过程质量是有益的。事实证明,从3岁左右开始,花更多时间在高质量的儿童保育上是有益的,而增加对年幼儿童的儿童保育的影响对每个项目的特点和背景尤为敏感。
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引用次数: 2
The Role of Wage Formation in Empirical Macroeconometric Models 实证宏观计量经济模型中工资形成的作用
Pub Date : 2021-11-29 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.641
Ragnar Nymoen
The specification of model equations for nominal wage setting has important implications for the properties of macroeconometric models and requires system thinking and multiple equation modeling. The main models classes are the Phillips curve model (PCM), the wage–price equilibrium correction model (WP-ECM), and the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPCM). The PCM was included in the macroeconometric models of the 1960s. The WP‑ECM arrived in the late 1980s. The NKPCM is central in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGEs). The three model classes can be interpreted as different specifications of the system of stochastic difference equations that define the supply side of a medium-term macroeconometric model. This calls for an appraisal of the different wage models, in particular in relation to the concept of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU, or natural rate of unemployment), and of the methods and research strategies used. The construction of macroeconomic model used to be based on the combination of theoretical and practical skills in economic modeling. Wage formation was viewed as being forged between the forces of markets and national institutions. In the age of DSGE models, macroeconomics has become more of a theoretical discipline. Nevertheless, producers of DSGE models make use of hybrid forms if an initial theoretical specification fails to meet a benchmark for acceptable data fit. A common ground therefore exists between the NKPC, WP‑ECM, and PCM, and it is feasible to compare the model types empirically.
名义工资设定模型方程的规范对宏观计量经济模型的性质具有重要意义,需要系统思维和多方程建模。主要的模型类别是菲利普斯曲线模型(PCM),工资-价格均衡修正模型(WP-ECM)和新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线(NKPCM)。PCM被包括在20世纪60年代的宏观计量经济模型中。WP - ECM于20世纪80年代末问世。NKPCM是动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGEs)的核心。这三种模型类别可以被解释为定义中期宏观计量模型的供给侧的随机差分方程系统的不同规格。这就要求评估不同的工资模型,特别是关于非加速通货膨胀失业率(NAIRU,或自然失业率)的概念,以及所使用的方法和研究策略。过去,宏观经济模型的构建是建立在经济建模理论与实践技能相结合的基础上的。工资的形成被认为是在市场力量和国家机构之间形成的。在DSGE模型的时代,宏观经济学更像是一门理论学科。然而,DSGE模型的生产者使用混合形式,如果一个初始的理论规范未能满足可接受的数据拟合的基准。因此,在NKPC、WP - ECM和PCM之间存在共同点,并且从经验上比较模型类型是可行的。
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引用次数: 0
Race, Ethnicity, and Retirement Security in the United States 美国的种族、民族和退休保障
Pub Date : 2021-11-29 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.741
Dania V. Francis, C. Weller
U.S. workers need to save substantial amounts to supplement Social Security, a near-universal but basic public retirement benefit. Yet wealth inequality is widespread by race and ethnicity, so that households of color often have less wealth than White households. This wealth inequality is reflected in a massive retirement savings gap by race and ethnicity, so that households of color often have less wealth than White households. In 2016 Black households had a median retirement savings account balance of $23,000, compared to $67,000 for White households. Many people of color will face substantial and potentially harmful cuts to their retirement spending. They may, for example, find it more difficult to pay for housing or healthcare. This retirement gap is the result of several factors. Households of color, especially Black and Latino households, are less likely to receive large financial gifts and inheritances from their families. They have less wealth decades and often centuries of discrimination and exploitation in society. They thus have to save more for retirement on their own. Yet Black, Latino, and many Asian American workers face greater obstacles in saving for retirement than is the case for White workers. These obstacles are especially pronounced in retirement savings accounts. People of color have less access to these retirement benefits through their employers, contribute less due to greater concurrent economic risks, and build less wealth over time due to less stable earnings and more career disruptions. As a result, people of color often use home equity as a form of retirement savings, but they also face more financial risks associated with homeownership. In addition, many people of color face higher costs during retirement, especially higher healthcare costs and more widespread caregiving and financial responsibilities for family members. The coronavirus pandemic has exacerbated many of the obstacles and risks associated with retirement saving for people of color, who experienced sharper increases in unemployment and more widespread healthcare challenges due to greater exposure to the virus. Many Black, Latino, and Asian families had to rely more heavily on their own savings during the pandemic than was the case for White households. A range of public policies have been proposed or implemented, especially at the state level, to address some of the obstacles that people of color face in saving for retirement. Retirement researchers will need to investigate whether and how the pandemic has affected racial differences in retirement security as well as analyze how new policy efforts could shrink the racial differences in retirement wealth.
美国工人需要存大量的钱来补充社会保障,这是一项几乎普遍但基本的公共退休福利。然而,财富不平等因种族和民族而普遍存在,因此有色人种家庭的财富往往低于白人家庭。这种财富不平等反映在种族和民族之间巨大的退休储蓄差距上,因此有色人种家庭的财富往往低于白人家庭。2016年,黑人家庭的退休储蓄账户余额中位数为2.3万美元,而白人家庭为6.7万美元。许多有色人种的退休开支将面临大幅削减,而且可能有害。例如,他们可能会发现更难支付住房或医疗费用。这种退休差距是几个因素造成的。有色人种家庭,尤其是黑人和拉丁裔家庭,不太可能从家人那里得到大笔的财务礼物和遗产。他们的财富少了几十年,往往是几百年的社会歧视和剥削。因此,他们不得不为自己的退休生活储蓄更多。然而,与白人工人相比,黑人、拉丁裔和许多亚裔美国工人在为退休储蓄方面面临更大的障碍。这些障碍在退休储蓄账户中尤为明显。有色人种通过雇主获得这些退休福利的机会较少,由于同时存在更大的经济风险,他们的贡献更少,由于收入不稳定和职业中断更多,随着时间的推移,他们积累的财富更少。因此,有色人种经常使用房屋净值作为退休储蓄的一种形式,但他们也面临着与房屋所有权相关的更多金融风险。此外,许多有色人种在退休期间面临着更高的成本,特别是更高的医疗成本和更广泛的照顾和家庭成员的经济责任。冠状病毒大流行加剧了有色人种退休储蓄相关的许多障碍和风险,由于更多地暴露于病毒,有色人种的失业率急剧上升,医疗保健面临更广泛的挑战。与白人家庭相比,许多黑人、拉丁裔和亚裔家庭在疫情期间不得不更多地依靠自己的储蓄。已经提出或实施了一系列公共政策,特别是在州一级,以解决有色人种在为退休储蓄方面面临的一些障碍。退休研究人员将需要调查大流行是否以及如何影响退休保障方面的种族差异,并分析新的政策努力如何缩小退休财富方面的种族差异。
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引用次数: 2
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Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance
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