Khoirotun Nisa, Hairur Rahman, A. Kusumastuti
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摘要

本文利用同伦摄动法讨论了分数阶SEIR方程的解。这个数学模型是COVID-19病例在印度尼西亚传播的SEIR模型。一般来说,非线性常微分方程系统(ODES)的解很难解析求解,因此本研究将非线性常微分方程系统(ODES)转化为分数阶微分方程系统(FDES)。完成本研究使用的方法是HPM方法。通过以下步骤得到分数阶的HPM方法的解:1).将每个SEIR方程与嵌入参数相乘,并在假设的无穷级数中等于每个系数以求解;2).模拟数值解并进行图解释。数值模拟表明,易感人群、无症状感染人群、康复人群有所增加,与症状减少的感染人群形成对比。与非线性ODES解相比,HPM法的数值解显示出相当小的误差。
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Model Epidemi Suspected Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR) Pada Penyebaran COVID-19 Orde-Fraksional
This article discusses the solution to the fractional order SEIR equation with the help of the Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM). This mathematical model is the SEIR model of the spread of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia. In general, the nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equation System (ODES) solution is quite difficult to solve analytically, so this research will transform the nonlinear ODES into a Fractional Differential Equation System (FDES). The method used in completing this research is the HPM method. The solution for the fractional order by the HPM method is obtained by the following steps: 1). Multiply each SEIR equation against the embedding parameter and equate each coefficient in the assumed infinite series to find the solution, 2). Simulate numerical solutions and perform graph interpretation. The numerical simulation shows that the susceptible human population, the infected human population without symptoms, the recovered human population has increased, in contrast to the infected human population with decreased symptoms. The HPM method in its numerical solution shows a fairly small comparison to the nonlinear ODES solution.
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