评乔治亚州经济发展部报告《电影工业对乔治亚州的经济影响》

J. Bradbury
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文对格鲁吉亚经济发展部(GDEcD)最近委托撰写的关于格鲁吉亚电影业经济影响的经济影响报告(Meek report)进行评论。•继GDEcD之后,Meek报告只考察了电影业的收益,而没有考虑该州电影税收抵免计划的成本。自2008年以来,该州已经发放了近50亿美元的电影税收抵免,并在2019财年批准了8.6亿美元的电影税收抵免。每年放弃的税收收入约占州政府预算的3%,即每个乔治亚州家庭230美元。•虽然Meek报告承认存在大量关于电影激励和经济增长的研究,但它没有报告现有研究的共识结果,这些研究不支持电影激励对国家经济产生净积极影响的假设。•《米克报告》没有使用州政府机构提供的电影制作直接支出记录,而是用一种可疑的方法对直接支出进行了估计,这种方法没有得到充分的描述,看起来也不可靠。估计的直接支出估计数与其他现有措施不一致,不可信。•《米克报告》使用了过多的乘数来估计电影制作支出的间接和诱发效应。乘数的起源没有得到解释,当与过度的直接支出估计结合在一起时,它夸大了总经济影响,远远超过了可能的影响。•电影就业可能会误导该行业对格鲁吉亚经济的影响。最近电影业工作岗位的增长可能反映了从全职到兼职的转变。•根据《米克报告》对电影业工作岗位的估计,电影税收抵免的成本为每个工作岗位(全职和兼职)4.9万美元。当政府统计处的电影就业数据按全职等值工作调整后,每个全职工作的成本为11万元。•《米克报告》强调,电影工作的平均工资超过了该州的平均工资。平均数的比较是有误导性的,因为平均数被少数演员、导演等的高薪所扭曲,而这些人并不能代表典型的乔治亚州电影工作者。美国电影工作者的平均工资为3.9万美元,低于所有工作的平均工资4.8万美元。典型的电影工作者的工资不高。•《米克报告》中描述的方法和数据并不支持其声称的电影行业贡献了86亿美元的产值或5.1万个工作岗位的说法。根据现有的直接电影制作支出记录,加上合理的乘数,估计格鲁吉亚电影业的经济影响在34亿至50亿美元之间,总产出约为3万个就业岗位。•直接电影支出占佐治亚州经济的近30亿美元,约占该州6000亿美元经济的1/200。虽然佐治亚州的电影产量可能超过其他州,但与普遍看法相反,电影业并不是该州经济产出或就业的主要推动力。
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A Comment on Georgia Department of Economic Development Report: ‘The Economic Impact of the Film Industry in Georgia’
This article comments on the recent economic impact report (Meek Report) commissioned by Georgia Department of Economic Development (GDEcD) on the economic impact of the film industry in Georgia. • Following the charge of the GDEcD, the Meek Report examines only the benefits of the film industry and does not consider the costs of the state’s film tax credit program. The state has issued nearly $5 billion in film tax credits since 2008, and it approved $860 million in film tax credits during FY 2019. The annual amount of forgone tax revenue represents approximately three percent of the state-funded budget or $230 dollars per Georgia household. • Though the Meek Report acknowledges the existence of the strong body of research on film incentives and economic growth, it does not report the consensus findings of existing studies, which do not support the hypothesis that film incentives have a net positive impact on state economies. • Rather than use available records of direct spending on film production from state government agencies, the Meek Report concocts an estimate of direct spending using a dubious method that is not adequately described, nor does it appear to be sound. The estimated direct spending estimate is inconsistent with other available measures and is not credible. • The Meek Report uses an excessive multiplier to estimate indirect and induced effects from film production spending. The origins of the multiplier are not explained, and when combined with the excessive direct spending estimate, it inflates total economic impact well above its likely impact. • Film employment can provide a misleading representation of the industry’s impact on the Georgia economy. Recent growth in film industry jobs likely reflects a shift from full-time to part-time workers. • Using the Meek Report’s estimate of film industry jobs, the cost of film tax credits is $49,000 per job, (full-time and part-time). When GDEcD film employment data is adjusted for full-time equivalency (FTE), the cost is $110,000 per FTE job. • The Meek Report highlights that the average wage for film jobs exceeds the average wage of the state. The comparison of averages is misleading, because the mean is skewed upwards by the exceptional salaries of a few actors, directors, etc. who are not representative of typical Georgia film workers. The median wage of US film workers equates to $39,000 (FTE), which is below the median wage of $48,000 of all jobs. Typical film workers do not earn high wages. • The methods and data described in the Meek Report do not support its claims that the film industry is responsible for $8.6 billion in output or 51,000 jobs. Available records of direct film production spending combined with reasonable multipliers results in an estimated economic impact of Georgia’s film industry of between $3.4 and $5 billion in total output and around 30,000 total jobs. • Direct film spending represents close to $3 billion of Georgia’s economy, which is approximately 1/200th of the state’s $600 billion economy. While film production in Georgia may exceed other states, contrary to popular perception, the film industry is not a major driver of economic output or jobs in the state.
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