这是中国放松货币政策的令人信服的理由

Guonan Ma
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引用次数: 2

摘要

•中国的货币政策在2014年过度紧缩,但在2014年底开始放松,试图缓冲增长、促进再平衡、支持改革和降低金融风险。•这种政策转变主要有三个原因。首先,有证据表明,中国经济一直在低于其潜在产能运行。其次,在五大经济体中,中国的货币政策立场和更广泛的金融状况在全球金融危机爆发后收紧幅度最大,可能对国内经济增长造成压力。第三,在当前关头,宽松的货币政策和中性的财政政策相结合对中国最有利,因为这将支持国内需求,并有助于中国地方政府债务的重组,同时促进中国摆脱盯住美元的软汇率。•货币政策立场的这种合理转变面临着以下挑战:潜在增长的不确定性、更加自由化的金融体系、不断演变的货币政策框架、过度杠杆的遗留问题以及政治化的政策辩论。
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A compelling case for Chinese monetary easing
• Chinese monetary policy was excessively tight in 2014 but started loosening in late 2014, in an attempt to cushion growth, facilitate rebalancing, support reform and mitigate financial risk. • There are three main reasons for this policy shift. First, there is evidence that the Chinese economy has been operating below its potential capacity. Second, among the big five economies, China’s monetary policy stance and broader financial condition both tightened the most in the wake of the global financial crisis, likely weighing on domestic growth. Third, a mix of easy monetary policy and neutral fiscal policy would serve China best at the current juncture, because it would support domestic demand and help with the restructuring of China's local government debts, while facilitating a move away from the soft dollar peg. • Such a warranted shift in monetary policy stance faces the challenges of uncertain potential growth, a more liberalised financial system, an evolving monetary policy framework, the legacy of excess leverage and a politicised policy debate.
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