基于模型的量化技术风险评估方法

G. Zhao, C. Xing, G. Zhao, Y. Sun
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在武器装备等大型项目建设中,风险和不确定性是主要关注的问题,在项目实施过程中,必须对这些风险和不确定性进行强制性评估,才能取得项目的成功。近年来,技术准备以其层次性、精细性等特点受到广泛关注,在包括装备采购在内的各个领域发挥着非常重要的作用。本文以技术就绪模型为基础,通过一次技术就绪评估来评估设备风险,通过一次量化评估来体现技术风险,通过验证规则来控制风险,研究了围绕技术就绪评估的风险评估方法,并给出了该方法的具体工作流程。
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Model-based method to evaluate quantified technical risks
Risks and uncertainties are major concerned in the construction of large-scale projects like weapon equipment, whose success shall be got through a compulsory evaluation on those risks and uncertainties during the execution of the projects. And the technology readiness has gained wide attentions in recent years with its characteristics like hierarchy, delicacy, etc. and played a very important role in fields inclusive of equipment procurement. Based on the model of technology readiness, this article evaluates equipment risks through an evaluation on technology readiness, manifests technical risks through one quantified evaluation, controls risks using verification rules, studies risk evaluation method encircling an evaluation on technology readiness, and provides the specific work flow process for such method.
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