地缘战略政策对稳定中东和北非地区石油市场的显著影响

A. Shikara
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摘要

至少在未来100年,石油作为一种地缘战略经济商品,将继续在制定能源安全战略和政策方面发挥重要的全球性作用。这就是为什么与石油市场稳定程度相关的地缘战略影响越来越多地开始受到多方的关注、关注、兴趣和动力。在可预见的未来,另一个需要以谨慎和计算的方式进一步分析的重要方面是“阿拉伯之春革命或起义”的含义是否适合归类的问题。因此,根据经济学人智库最近的一份题为《春潮:阿拉伯起义会带来民主、独裁还是混乱?》自20世纪中叶殖民时代结束以来,阿拉伯世界的民众起义给该地区带来了最剧烈的变化。诚然,这些民众起义的命运仍悬而未决。基于这一戏剧性的发展,Frank A. Verrastro在他题为“能源格局变化的安全含义”的文章中写道。断言有一个新的能源格局,其特点是五个突出的趋势或动态:需求模式的转变;不断变化的资源基础;价格波动与投资不确定性;新的玩家,联盟和不断发展的规则;气候变化的威胁以及对依赖化石燃料的世界施加碳排放限制的努力。从更广泛的角度来看,地缘战略维度不仅将继续由新参与者决定,还将越来越多地由特定利益或关注点的多元领域决定:安全、政治、经济、社会、地位,以及不断变化的技术,由此创新项目或解决方案不断给市场带来惊喜,特别是在“可再生非化石能源选择”方面。比如美国绿色计划(最著名的是奥巴马的能源安全梦想)。David L. Goldwyn很现实地指出:“今天的能源不安全状况比近30年来的任何时候都要严重。”全球石油市场更加脆弱,竞争更加激烈,也更加不稳定。
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The Salient Implications of Geo-Strategic Policies on Stablizing the Oil Market in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) Region
Oil as a Geo-strategic economic commodity will continue to play at least for the next 100 years a prominent worldly role in shaping Energy Security strategies and policies. This is why the Geo-strategic implications relating to the degree of stabilizing the oil market has increasingly started to gain more attention, concern, interest and momentum by multivariate parties. Another serious dimension that needs to be analyzed further in the foreseeable future in a cautious and calculating manner is the question of the implications of the ‘Arab Spring Revolutions or Uprising’ as fit to be categorized. Thus, according to the recent EIU Study under the title: “Spring Tide: Will the Arab Risings yield democracy, dictatorship or disorder?�? Popular uprisings in the Arab world have produced the most dramatic changes in the region since the end of the colonial era in the middle of the 20th century. Admittedly, the fate of these popular uprisings remains in the balance. Building on this dramatic development, Frank A. Verrastro in his article entitled “Security implications of the changing energy landscape�? asserted that there is a new energy landscape characterized by five prominent trends or dynamics as follows: shifting demand patterns; the changing resource base; price volatility and investment uncertainty; new players, alignments, and evolving rules; and the threat of climate change and efforts to impose carbon constraints on a fossil fuel – dependent world�?. From a wider perspective, the Geo-strategic dimensions will continue to be determined not just by new players, but increasingly by multivariate areas of specific interests or concerns: security, politics, economics, social, status, and the ever changing technologies whereby innovative projects or solutions are constantly surprising the markets particularly with regards to the question of “renewable non-fossil energy options�? such as the American Green Project (best known as Obama’s dream for energy security). It seems perceptive to note, that David L. Goldwyn is realistic in stating that “Energy insecurity is greater today than it has been in nearly 30 years. The global oil market is more fragile, more competitive, and more volatile.�?
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