地铁长度增长对中国主要大城市经济增长的影响

Yang Ming
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摘要

城市轨道交通是世界上许多城市广泛应用的交通工具。在中国,许多城市正在建设地铁线路,以提高其交通和基础设施的能力。但由于这类项目所需的投资巨大,北京的国务院曾批评这类投资是浪费,脱离了经济增长的实际需求。因此,对地铁系统带来的经济效应的质疑也不断被提出。本文试图探讨地铁长度的增长与城市经济增长之间的关系,探讨其对城市经济增长的影响是正的还是负的,影响程度如何。并就上述城市是否应继续建设地铁或批准建设地铁,为城市规划者和决策者提供建议。本文将采用基于传统柯布-道格拉斯模型和包括线性回归在内的统计方法的计量经济模型。
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The Effect of the Growth in Length of Metro on the Economic Growth in Major Big Cities in China
Urban rail transit is a widely applied mean of transportation in many cities around the world. In China, numerous cities are constructing their metro lines to improve the capability of its transportation and infrastructure. But because the investment needed in such project is colossal, the State Council in Beijing once criticized this type of investment for being wasteful and detaching from the actual demand of economic growth. Consequently, doubts on economic effects brought by metro system are also posed relentlessly. This research will try to look into the relation between the growing length of metro system and the economic growth in metropolis, finding out whether it is positive or negative and by what margin. And give out suggestions to city planners and policymakers on whether further construction of metro in mentioned cities should be carried out or approved. An econometric model that is based on the traditional Cobb-Douglas model and statistical methods including linear regression will be applied.
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