评价铁路绩效的策略——系统动力学方法

J. Homer, T. Keane, N.O. Lukiantseva, D. Bell
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引用次数: 16

摘要

描述了美国主要铁路战略规划模型的背景和创建。提出了选择系统动力学方法的关键因素,并强调了新模型与现有规划应用程序套件之间的协同作用。回顾了模型的整体结构,包括关键的加强和平衡回路,并讨论了模型创建问题,如聚合水平。详细描述了数据收集和校准阶段所遵循的方法,并提供了校准指标和灵敏度测试参数的样本,以及样本模型输出。最后,指出了该模型未来的潜在用途。
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Evaluating strategies to improve railroad performance—a system dynamics approach
Describes the context for and creation of a strategic planning model of a major US railway. The key factors in choosing a system dynamics approach are presented, and the synergy between the new model and the existing suite of planning applications is highlighted. The overall structure of the model is reviewed, including the key reinforcing and balancing loops, and model creation issues, such as level of aggregation, are discussed. The methodology followed in the data collection and calibration phases is described in detail, and samples of calibration metrics and sensitivity testing parameters are provided, as well as sample model output. Lastly, potential future uses of the model are noted.
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