改进月流量预测的新型混合模型:结合人工神经网络和粒子群算法

Baydaa Abdul Kareem, S. Zubaidi
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摘要

在设计水资源规划和管理、预测洪水和减少洪水威胁时,精确的流量预测是至关重要的。本研究通过将人工神经网络(ANN)与粒子群优化算法(PSO)相结合,根据数据预处理,为伊拉克阿马拉市底格里斯河的月度水流发明了一种新方法。使用了2010年至2020年的历史流量数据。本研究的主要结论是数据预处理提高了数据质量并确定了最佳预测情景。此外,粒子群算法能有效地预测所建议模型的参数。结果表明,该方法可以根据R2、RMSE和MAE等多种统计标准成功地模拟河流流量。
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Novel hybrid model to improve the monthly streamflow prediction: Integrating ANN and PSO
Precise streamflow forecasting is crucial when designing water resource planning and management, predicting flooding, and reducing flood threats. This study invented a novel approach for the monthly water streamflow of the Tigris River in Amarah City, Iraq, by integrating an artificial neural network (ANN) with the particle swarm optimisation algorithm (PSO), depending on data preprocessing. Historical streamflow data were utilised from (2010 to 2020). The primary conclusions of this study are that data preprocessing enhances data quality and identifies the optimal predictor scenario. In addition, it was revealed that the PSO algorithm effectively forecasts the parameters of the suggested model. Also, the outcomes indicated that the suggested approach successfully simulated the streamflow according to multiple statistical criteria, including R2, RMSE, and MAE.
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