一个空虚的国家?阿尔巴尼亚的人口和国际移徙趋势

J. Ármás
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摘要

这项研究在人口过渡概念的框架内审查了阿尔巴尼亚的人口和移徙趋势。通过概述第二次世界大战后时期的历史-政治-经济特征,本文解释了导致阿尔巴尼亚人口爆炸和社会主义垮台后该国人口迅速下降的因素。作为中欧、东欧和东南欧的一个特点,阿尔巴尼亚人口减少的情况因该国特别是受过教育的年轻一代的高移民率而加剧。就目前而言,阿尔巴尼亚没有鼓励人们生育或留在该国的激励措施,但它也没有西欧国家那样的“移民腹地”。阿尔巴尼亚人口目前为280万,由于所有这些发展,预计到2060年将降至210万。
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An Emptying State? Demographic and International Migration Trends in Albania
The study examines demographic and migration trends in Albania within the framework of the concept of demographic transition. By outlining the historical-political-economic characteristics of the post-World War II period, the paper explains the factors that led to the population explosion in Albania and the rapid decline of the country’s population after the fall of socialism. As a specific feature of Central, East and Southeast Europe, Albania’s depopulation situation is exacerbated by the high rate of emigration from the country, particularly among the young, educated generations. As it currently stands, Albania has no incentives to encourage people to bear children or to stay in the country, but it also has no “migration hinterland” like Western European countries. The Albanian population, currently 2.8 million, is projected to fall to 2.1 million by 2060 as a result of all these developments.
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