Turkey in transition—opportunities amidst peril?

On 3 October 2005, Turkey’s bid to join the European Union turned a corner with the opening of accession negotiations. The terms of accession and Turkey’s long-term prospects for EU membership, however, remain rather unclear. The need to better understand the factors that will shape the course of EU–Turkey relations is critical. Turkey’s accession talks have already put Ankara’s bid, as well as the EU’s role and identity, into a new perspective. To become a member, Turkey must meet all the criteria and requirements laid out in the Negotiating Framework adopted in September 2005. On the political level, Turkey must create stable institutions that guarantee democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for minorities. It should also unequivocally commit itself to good neighbourly relations and to the peaceful solution of border disputes according to the UN Charter and international law. Economically, the EU expects Turkey to create a functioning market economy and to adopt the acquis communautaire. All these will require Turkey to reform itself drastically to adopt, implement and enforce the European principles and values. However, the accession talks are taking place against a backdrop of a very sceptical EU public opinion as well as an elite majority that is less tolerant towards Turkey’s European prospects. Old prejudices against Turkey, mainly based on religion and history, are still very present and they are reinforced by more pragmatic concerns, related to the basic arithmetics of the EU functioning: number of votes in the Council, European Parliament seats, funding and subsidies, etc. And it is true that the thorniest issue in the whole process is the EU’s capacity to absorb Turkey. Financially, Turkey’s integration can only happen after an overhaul of the EU’s budget and redistribution mechanisms. The institutional changes required must be fundamental. All the above is the reason why Turkey negotiates its European future under the most stringent terms any candidate ever had to endure in the history of European integration and that is why to have any chance for success, Turkey will have to win the hearts and minds of EU citizens, and this must be done by a country at a time of peril.