凯恩斯和菲利普斯曲线:一个建议的重新解释

H. Anderson
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引用次数: 0

摘要

菲利普斯和凯恩斯对失业和通货膨胀之间的关系有着截然不同的看法。前者看到了两者之间的直接权衡,后者看到了由流动性偏好中介的间接周期性关系。在两种模型的数学规范之间的对比发现,即使在布雷顿森林体系时期,凯恩斯的模型也更准确地模拟了通货膨胀,而且它的模型在今天仍然以相当高的准确性继续模拟通货膨胀。这表明,与菲利普斯曲线的含义相反,通胀是一种货币现象。对凯恩斯模型的分析揭示了近几十年来美国经济流动性管理的改善,并说明了利率接近于零的货币政策的问题。
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Keynes and the Phillips Curve: A Suggested Reinterpretation
Phillips and Keynes had very different ideas on the relationship between unemployment and inflation. While the former saw a direct trade-off between the two, the latter saw an indirect cyclical relationship intermediated by liquidity preference. A horserace between mathematical specifications of the two models finds that Keynes’ model more accurately models inflation even during the Bretton Woods period and that it model continues to model inflation today with significant accuracy. This indicates that inflation is, contrary to the implications of the Phillips curve, a monetary phenomenon. An analysis of Keynes’ model illuminates improved liquidity management in the U.S. economy in recent decades and illustrates problems of monetary policy with near-zero interest rates.
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