测量能源效率:计算产品失效的隐性成本

A. Fraas, S. E. Miller
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摘要

美国能源部为各种各样的消费电器制定能源效率标准,以实现“显著的能源节约”。这些标准的倡导者声称,家庭已经实现了大量的成本节约与现有的标准。然而,关于能源效率监管的影响,有大量的文献——尽管没有达成共识。虽然人们越来越强调减少温室气体排放的潜力,但这些减排的相对效益通常很小。相反,能源效率监管的基础是建立在“能源悖论”的主张之上的,即能源效率措施的个人收益大大超过了边际成本,而家庭和企业由于市场或行为的不完善而未能采用这些措施。作为对能源悖论效应的进一步支持,监管机构的事前工程分析通常会估计能源效率规则的大量净私人利益。以2001年的洗衣机能效标准和1997年的冰箱能效标准为例,美国能源部估计,到2030年,累计净效益将在169.7亿美元至265亿美元之间。然而,这两项规定都给消费者带来了意想不到的负担,其形式是产品可靠性降低、维修成本增加和产品寿命缩短。到目前为止,现有的回顾性分析只考虑了消费者的能源节约,而没有考虑到这些大量增加的负担,这只反映了一半的情况。
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Measuring Energy Efficiency: Accounting for the Hidden Costs of Product Failure
DOE sets energy efficiency standards for a wide variety of consumer appliances to achieve a “significant conservation of energy.” Advocates for these standards claim that households have realized substantial cost savings with the existing standards. There is a substantial literature—although no consensus—on the effects of energy efficiency regulation, however. While an increasing emphasis has been placed on the potential reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the relative benefits of these emissions reductions are generally small. Instead, the basis for energy efficiency regulation rests on the claim of an “energy paradox”—that the private benefits of energy efficiency measures substantially exceed the marginal costs, and that households and firms fail to adopt them because of market or behavioral imperfections. As further support for an energy paradox effect, ex ante engineering analyses by regulatory agencies typically estimate substantial net private benefits for energy efficiency rules. In the case of the 2001 energy efficiency standards for clothes washers and the 1997 standards for refrigerators, DOE estimated between $16.97 billion and $26.5 billion in cumulative net benefits through 2030. However, both rules resulted in unanticipated burdens for consumers in the form of diminished product reliability, increased repair costs, and decreased product lifetime. To date, existing retrospective analyses have considered consumers’ energy savings without considering these substantial added burdens, which captures only half of the picture.
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