基于短期负荷预测的办公建筑储能规模研究

Xiaohui Yan, Haisheng Chen, Xuehui Zhang, Chunqing Tan
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引用次数: 6

摘要

本文提出了一种三层人工神经网络作为短期负荷预测模型,采用最快的鲁棒反向传播算法,即Levenberg-Marquardt优化,并在学习过程中考虑了动量因素。根据上述模型的预测数据,根据期望的调峰需求水平,确定储能系统的额定功率和容量大小。以2011年7 - 8月的写字楼天气和电力负荷数据为例,结果表明,该预测模型的平均相对误差为-0.7%,均方根误差为2.79%,在可接受误差2.79%范围内的吸引率为87.5%,具有较好的预测效果;并对采用电池储能技术的储能系统7.03kW/36.42kWh进行了尺寸确定,以满足期望的调峰需求。
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Energy storage sizing for office buildings based on short-term load forecasting
This paper presents a three-layer Artificial Neural Network as the short-term load forecasting model adopting the fastest back-propagation algorithm with robustness, i.e., Levenberg-Marquardt optimization, and moreover, the momentum factor is considered during the learning process. Based on predicted data by aforementioned model, size determination of energy storage system in terms of power rating and capacity is undertaken according to the desired level of shaving peak demand. The illustrative example in reference to the weather and power load data of office building from July to August in 2011 gets the results that the average relative error -0.7% and the root-mean-square error 2.79% which show aforementioned forecasting model can work effectively with the attractive percentage, i.e. 87.5%, of error within the acceptable one 2.79%; Furthermore, size determination of energy storage system adopting battery energy storage technology, i.e. 7.03kW/36.42kWh, is carried out to meet the desired peak shaving demand.
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