Trends in applications

Where is the small computer field headed? In order to talk about the future of small computers and their applications, I have to take on the role of a prognosticator, a predictor of future trends and events. Prognostication is an art to which mystical or magical qualities are often attributed, but which in reality is nothing more than a combination of reasoning and imagination based upon observation. The injection of imagination about possible trends and developments makes prognostication a bit different from a narrow linear extrapolation of identified trends. The imagination component is heavily influenced by personal values and philosophies, and represents a feedback of oughts and shoulds into the course of events as they develop. Prognostication is thus a method of extrapolating observed current trends into the future coupled with the prognosticator's opinions of what should be happening. In the terms of the scientist or engineer, prognostication is like an operational amplifier system in which the input signal is the observed set of trends and the feedback network is the prognosticator's personal philosophy and imagination. For example, in predicting the fate of civilization, if one is a congenital pessimist like the members of the Club of Rome, then the predictions will come out claiming disaster and ruin. If one is an optimist about the expanding possibilities created by advancing technology, then a totally different character of prediction will result. When you listen to what I have to say, be warned that I have a definite personal point of view regarding computer technology and its proper uses, and that this shapes the nature of the imagination content and the trends I select to emphasize.