大型项目的决策:市场动态和政治不连续性的漂移

Hugo Priemus
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引用次数: 6

摘要

大型项目的决策存在诸多问题。成本超支和令人失望的成就的问题是有据可查的。由于从启动到开始运行之间有很长的时间,因此会产生许多不确定因素。由于市场动态和政治不连续性,经常会发生意想不到的事态发展。本文概述了不同形式的市场动态和不同形式的政治不连续性(有时这些是相互关联的)。我们分析这些形式,并试图找出项目经理如何处理这类陷阱。本文旨在对大型项目决策理论做出贡献,并为参与大型项目决策的人员提出建议。
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Decision-making on mega-projects: Drifting on market dynamics and political discontinuity
The decision-making on mega-projects suffers from many problems. The issues of cost overruns and disappointing achievements are well documented. Because of the long periods between initiative and start of operation many uncertainties occur. Very often unexpected developments take place, as a result of market dynamics and political discontinuity. This paper gives an overview of different forms of market dynamics and different forms of political discontinuity (sometimes these are interrelated). We analyse these forms and try to find out how project managers could handle these kinds of pitfalls. The paper aims to contribute to theories of decision-making on mega-projects and proposes recommendations for those involved in the decision-making process of mega-projects.
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