The Economic Legacy of Warfare: Evidence from European Regions

Historical warfare in Europe inflicted numerous costs on rural populations. To reduce such costs, rural populations relocated behind the relative safety of urban fortifications. We argue that war-related urbanization had positive consequences for long-run regional economic development. We geocode the locations of more than 600 conflicts in early modern Europe. We find a positive and significant relationship between historical conflict exposure and regional economic development today. Our results are robust to a wide range of econometric techniques, alternative samples, and economic outcomes. Human capital accumulation stands out as one channel through which war-related urbanization translated into regional economic development. Our results highlight the military origins of European wealthy urban belt.