Development of a predictive model for on-demand remote river level nowcasting: Case study in Cagayan River Basin, Philippines

DOST-Advanced Science and Technology Institute has installed various hydro-meteorological devices, such as Automated Rain Gauge(ARG), Water Level Monitoring Stations (WLMS), and Tandem Stations, all over the Philippines since 2010. While the stations provide valuable near real-time data for monitoring major riven basins, ahead-of-time flood estimations are of interest for early warning purposes especially for local communities situated along the river basin. This study addresses the need on developing a predictive model that can provide an ahead of time nowcasting system for water level and flood hazard to provide a decision support tool for the local communities. A data driven approach using machine learning is implemented to generate ahead-of-time water level estimation. Results from the testing data shows that the resulting model was able to provide an accurate ahead of time water level prediction without relying on rainfall-runoff models.