基于时间卷积网络的电力系统短期负荷预测

Hanmo Wang, Yang Zhao, S. Tan
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引用次数: 14

摘要

随着电力市场的放松管制和可再生资源的集聚,一个足够准确、稳健、快速的短期负荷预测是电网日常可靠运行的必要条件。为了获得性能更好、速度更快的参数值,本文采用由一维卷积神经网络构成的时间卷积网络(TCN)进行短期负荷预测。人们通常认为递归神经网络(rnn)是短期负荷预测领域的王者,但TCN模型由于采用卷积神经网络结构,具有更快的速度和更少的内存需求。模拟研究是使用从多伦多收集的每小时电力消耗数据集进行的。与支持向量回归机(svvrm)模型和长短期记忆(LSTM)模型相比,TCN模型对短期电力负荷的预测效果最好。
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Short-term load forecasting of power system based on time convolutional network
Along with the deregulation of electric power market as well as aggregation of renewable resources, a sufficiently accurate, robust and fast short-term load forecasting (STLF) is necessary for the day-to-day reliable operation of the grid. To obtain parameter values that provide better performances with faster speed, this paper uses a temporal convolutional network (TCN), which constituted by the one-dimensional convolutional neural network, for short-term load forecasting. It’s commonly thought that recurrent neural networks (RNNs) is the king of short-term load forecasting areas, but the TCN model has faster speed and less memory requirement because of the convolutional neural network structure. The simulation studies are carried out using an hourly power consumption dataset collected from Toronto. Compared with support vector regression machine (SVRM) model and long short-term memory (LSTM) model, the TCN model has the best performance in predicting the short-term electrical load.
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