治理和公众信任在政府债务-经济增长关系中的作用(全球实证分析)

Andar Ristabet Hesda, Efi Yuliani
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引用次数: 0

摘要

一些国家的高额政府债务有可能引发或加剧经济不稳定。这些担忧与本研究的结果一致,即负债率高的国家往往经济增长下降。为了更好地理解这种影响,本研究试图通过利用治理和公众信任水平作为背景变量和中介来检验债务对经济增长的影响。从经验上看,这两个变量在债务和经济增长关系中都起着突出的作用。将债务门槛作为一项预算规则是必要的,但可能不足以验证债务上升的合理性。政府提供公共治理的能力和额外债务对公众信任的影响是另一个需要认真审查的关键方面,或者当债务的增加不可避免时(如在流行病情况下),政府应加强治理能力,以确保债务的生产力,缓解公众信任的下降。这一发现表明,债务政策不仅应以预算规则为基础,还应以治理能力和公众信任下降的潜在影响为基础。
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Role of Governance and Public Trust on Government Debt-Economic Growth Nexus (A Global Empirical Analysis)
High government debts in several countries have the potential to trigger or exacerbate economic instability. These concerns are consistent with the results of this study, where countries that have a high debt ratio tend to have declining economic growth. To provide more understanding about this effect, this study tries to examine the effect of debt on economic growth by utilising the governance and public trust level as a contextual variable and mediator. Empirically, both variables have a prominent role in the debt and economic growth nexus. The debt threshold as a budgetary rule is necessary but might not be sufficient to validate the rationality of rising debt. The capability of government in providing public governance and the effect of additional debt on public trust is another crucial aspect that needs to be seriously scrutinised, or when the addition of debt becomes inevitable (such as in pandemic situation), the government should strengthen governance capability to ensure the productivity of debt and mitigate the decreased public trust. This finding implies that the debt policy should not only be based on budgetary rule but also the capacity of governance and the potential implication of the falling public trust.
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