Adne Sagita Panjaitan, M. Maretha, Hilmiah, Bunga Mardhotillah
Tahun 2023 Indonesia tercatat sebagai negara pemilik cadangan emas terbesar nomor 6 di dunia. Dan menurut data yang diberikan Ditjen Minerba Kementerian ESDM pada tahun 2021 Indonesia menghasilkan 118,3 ton emas murni, menjadikan negara Indonesia sebagai penghasil emas nomor 9 di dunia. Keberadaan Indonesia dalam cincin api pasifik ditandai dengan aktivitas vulkanik akibat pergerakan lempengan bumi yang menghasilkan pergerakan tektonik di bawah permukaan bumi menjadikan potensi adanya pertambang di Indonesia sangat besar. Dimana menurut Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) Indonesia memiliki sekitar 1.182.073,53 hektare tambang emas yang tersebar ke dalam 25 provinsi. Emas sendiri merupakan salah satu alat tukar menukar. Dimana menurut web www.goldprice.org di Indonesia pada bulan September 2022 sampai pada September 2023 mengalami peningkatan sebesar 12% namun pada bulan januari 2023 harga emas mengalami penurunan sebesar 7%. Adanya penurunan harga ini dapat mempengaruhi investor yang ingin menginvestasikan harta mereka ke emas. Maka dari ini penulis tertarik untuk menerapkan estimasi Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) dalam menghitung harga emas penulis memilih negara Indonesia sebagai tempat melakukan penelitian, dimana Indonesia merupakan salah satu penghasil emas terbesar ke 6 di dunia. Dengan ini penulis berasumsi diperlukan adanya penelitian dengan pemodelan matematika untuk menganalisis, memprediksi, dan mengidentifikasi estimasi harga emas kedepannya. Adapun pemodelan matematika yang penulis pilih untuk menganalisis, memprediksi dan mengidentifikasi estimasi harga emas kedepannya di negara Indonesia adalah pendekatan deskriptif kuantitatif dengan menerapkan metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) dalam perhitungannya. Dimana tujuan penulis sendiri melakukan penelitian adalah untuk mewujudkan SDGs dalam sektor ekonomi, yang harapannya dengan adanya penelitian ini dapat membawa banyak pengaruh untuk kedepannya terutama untuk negara Indonesia sendiri.
{"title":"Optimalisasi Penerapan Metode ARIMA dalam Mengestimasi Harga Emas di Negara Indonesia","authors":"Adne Sagita Panjaitan, M. Maretha, Hilmiah, Bunga Mardhotillah","doi":"10.11594/jesi.03.02.06","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11594/jesi.03.02.06","url":null,"abstract":"Tahun 2023 Indonesia tercatat sebagai negara pemilik cadangan emas terbesar nomor 6 di dunia. Dan menurut data yang diberikan Ditjen Minerba Kementerian ESDM pada tahun 2021 Indonesia menghasilkan 118,3 ton emas murni, menjadikan negara Indonesia sebagai penghasil emas nomor 9 di dunia. Keberadaan Indonesia dalam cincin api pasifik ditandai dengan aktivitas vulkanik akibat pergerakan lempengan bumi yang menghasilkan pergerakan tektonik di bawah permukaan bumi menjadikan potensi adanya pertambang di Indonesia sangat besar. Dimana menurut Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) Indonesia memiliki sekitar 1.182.073,53 hektare tambang emas yang tersebar ke dalam 25 provinsi. Emas sendiri merupakan salah satu alat tukar menukar. Dimana menurut web www.goldprice.org di Indonesia pada bulan September 2022 sampai pada September 2023 mengalami peningkatan sebesar 12% namun pada bulan januari 2023 harga emas mengalami penurunan sebesar 7%. Adanya penurunan harga ini dapat mempengaruhi investor yang ingin menginvestasikan harta mereka ke emas. Maka dari ini penulis tertarik untuk menerapkan estimasi Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) dalam menghitung harga emas penulis memilih negara Indonesia sebagai tempat melakukan penelitian, dimana Indonesia merupakan salah satu penghasil emas terbesar ke 6 di dunia. Dengan ini penulis berasumsi diperlukan adanya penelitian dengan pemodelan matematika untuk menganalisis, memprediksi, dan mengidentifikasi estimasi harga emas kedepannya. Adapun pemodelan matematika yang penulis pilih untuk menganalisis, memprediksi dan mengidentifikasi estimasi harga emas kedepannya di negara Indonesia adalah pendekatan deskriptif kuantitatif dengan menerapkan metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) dalam perhitungannya. Dimana tujuan penulis sendiri melakukan penelitian adalah untuk mewujudkan SDGs dalam sektor ekonomi, yang harapannya dengan adanya penelitian ini dapat membawa banyak pengaruh untuk kedepannya terutama untuk negara Indonesia sendiri.","PeriodicalId":136508,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Statistik Indonesia","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139321743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menganalisis pengaruh pengeluaran pendidikan oleh pemerintah daerah terhadap pengeluaran pendidikan oleh rumah tangga menurut kelompok pendapatan. Sumber data utama yang digunakan berasal dari Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) 2007 dan 2014 serta APBD kabupaten/kota. Dengan model tobit, penelitian ini menemukan hasil bahwa peningkatan belanja pemerintah untuk pendidikan dasar berhubungan dengan pengurangan yang signifikan dalam pengeluaran pendidikan dasar oleh rumah tangga di setiap kelompok pendapatan. Menurut jenis pengeluaran, peningkatan pengeluaran pendidikan oleh pemerintah signifikan mengurangi pengeluaran iuran sekolah di semua kelompok pendapatan. Sementara itu, pengurangan pengeluaran untuk peralatan sekolah, transport dan kursus hanya terjadi pada rumah tangga berpendapatan rendah dan menengah.
{"title":"Pengeluaran Pemerintah Daerah dan Rumah Tangga untuk Pendidikan menurut Kelompok Pendapatan","authors":"P. Ayu, R. M. Qibthiyyah","doi":"10.11594/jesi.03.02.05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11594/jesi.03.02.05","url":null,"abstract":"Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menganalisis pengaruh pengeluaran pendidikan oleh pemerintah daerah terhadap pengeluaran pendidikan oleh rumah tangga menurut kelompok pendapatan. Sumber data utama yang digunakan berasal dari Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) 2007 dan 2014 serta APBD kabupaten/kota. Dengan model tobit, penelitian ini menemukan hasil bahwa peningkatan belanja pemerintah untuk pendidikan dasar berhubungan dengan pengurangan yang signifikan dalam pengeluaran pendidikan dasar oleh rumah tangga di setiap kelompok pendapatan. Menurut jenis pengeluaran, peningkatan pengeluaran pendidikan oleh pemerintah signifikan mengurangi pengeluaran iuran sekolah di semua kelompok pendapatan. Sementara itu, pengurangan pengeluaran untuk peralatan sekolah, transport dan kursus hanya terjadi pada rumah tangga berpendapatan rendah dan menengah.","PeriodicalId":136508,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Statistik Indonesia","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139321359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P. Sihombing, A. M. Arsani, I. G. H. Prayasta, Ida Ayu Candrawati
Gender inequality remains one of the exciting issues to discuss. The role of women in social and economic continues to increase from year to year. This study aims to see the effect of the Gender Empowerment Index (GEI), Gender Development Index (GDI), and poverty rate on the Gender Inequality Index (GII) in East Java. Data sourced from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia of East Java Province for the 2018-2020 period. The statistical method used was multiple linear regression with panel data. Based on panel model testing, the random model is the best. Simultaneously, all variables affect the GII. Partially, GEI and GDI have a significant negative effect on GII. On the other hand, the percentage of poor people has a significant positive effect on GII. Based on the results of this study, comprehensive policies related to macro-social economics are needed so that the level of GII continues to decline.
{"title":"Application of Panel Regression Model in Gender Studies in East Java","authors":"P. Sihombing, A. M. Arsani, I. G. H. Prayasta, Ida Ayu Candrawati","doi":"10.11594/jesi.03.02.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11594/jesi.03.02.04","url":null,"abstract":"Gender inequality remains one of the exciting issues to discuss. The role of women in social and economic continues to increase from year to year. This study aims to see the effect of the Gender Empowerment Index (GEI), Gender Development Index (GDI), and poverty rate on the Gender Inequality Index (GII) in East Java. Data sourced from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia of East Java Province for the 2018-2020 period. The statistical method used was multiple linear regression with panel data. Based on panel model testing, the random model is the best. Simultaneously, all variables affect the GII. Partially, GEI and GDI have a significant negative effect on GII. On the other hand, the percentage of poor people has a significant positive effect on GII. Based on the results of this study, comprehensive policies related to macro-social economics are needed so that the level of GII continues to decline.","PeriodicalId":136508,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Statistik Indonesia","volume":"146 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139321384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study aims to assess whether Jajar Legowo planting system has a significant impact on increasing the productivity of wetland paddy and the income of the paddy growers in Indonesia. We applied a linear regression model to the results of the 2017 National Cost Structure of Paddy Cultivation Household Survey conducted by BPS-Statistics Indonesia in all 34 provinces. The main contribution of this study is to provide an evaluation of the performance of Jajar Legowo planting system in increasing paddy productivity and income of the farmers. Therefore, our research can be used by the government as a reference for future improvement of the implementation of Jajar Legowo cultivation system. Our findings show that the new cultivation system has a significant impact on increasing the productivity of wetland paddy. Without controlling for other variables affecting productivity, the estimation result pointed out that on average, the new cultivation system can increase productivity by about 10 per cent. However, after controlling for other variables (the farmers and other cultivations characteristics), the magnitude decreases to around 5 per cent. Moreover, our estimation results also show that the income of the farmers rises by around 12 per cent by implementing Jajar Legowo. Our study indicates that the implementation of Jajar Legowo planting system results in better efficiency than that of the conventional one.
{"title":"Assessing The Impact of Jajar Legowo Planting System on Wetland Paddy Productivity and Income of Farmers in Indonesia","authors":"Octavia Rizky Prasetyo, Kadir","doi":"10.11594/jesi.03.02.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11594/jesi.03.02.02","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to assess whether Jajar Legowo planting system has a significant impact on increasing the productivity of wetland paddy and the income of the paddy growers in Indonesia. We applied a linear regression model to the results of the 2017 National Cost Structure of Paddy Cultivation Household Survey conducted by BPS-Statistics Indonesia in all 34 provinces. The main contribution of this study is to provide an evaluation of the performance of Jajar Legowo planting system in increasing paddy productivity and income of the farmers. Therefore, our research can be used by the government as a reference for future improvement of the implementation of Jajar Legowo cultivation system. Our findings show that the new cultivation system has a significant impact on increasing the productivity of wetland paddy. Without controlling for other variables affecting productivity, the estimation result pointed out that on average, the new cultivation system can increase productivity by about 10 per cent. However, after controlling for other variables (the farmers and other cultivations characteristics), the magnitude decreases to around 5 per cent. Moreover, our estimation results also show that the income of the farmers rises by around 12 per cent by implementing Jajar Legowo. Our study indicates that the implementation of Jajar Legowo planting system results in better efficiency than that of the conventional one.","PeriodicalId":136508,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Statistik Indonesia","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139339422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Persentase kepemilikan rumah pada rumah tangga di Indonesia menujukan trend yang semakin menurun dari tahun ke tahun. Keterbatasan penyediaan rumah dan tingginya harga rumah membuat sebagian besar rumah tangga menempuh skema kredit untuk dapat memiliki rumah. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menyelidiki bagaimana hubungan antara ketidakpastian pendapatan (income uncertainty), kendala pembiayaan (credit constraint) dan preferensi risiko (risk preference) rumah tangga terhadap status kepemilikan rumah di Indonesia. Studi ini menggunakan data IFLS Tahun 2007 dan 2014. Estimasi menggunakan variabel dengan metode probit dengan data panel dan probit OLS (ordinaryleast square) pada tahun 2014 dilakukan untuk mengetahui hubungan kausalitas antara ketidakpastian pendapatan (income uncertainty), kendala pembiayaan (credit constraint) dan preferensi risiko (risk preference) dengan status kepemilikan rumah di Indonesia. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Indoensia sebagai negara berkembang menunjukan pengaruh negatif dari ketidakpastian pendapatan (income uncertainty) terhadap status kepemilikan rumah di Indonesia lebih besar bila dibandingkan dengan negara maju lainnya. Sedangkan kendala kredit memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap status kepemilikan rumah di Indonesia, terutama kendala yang bersumber dari keterbatasan kekayaan yang digunakan sebagai jaminan pinjaman.
{"title":"Pengaruh Ketidakpastian Pendapatan Terhadap Status Kepemilikan Rumah di Indonesia","authors":"Citra Baskoro, Sartika Djamaluddin","doi":"10.11594/jesi.03.02.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11594/jesi.03.02.01","url":null,"abstract":"Persentase kepemilikan rumah pada rumah tangga di Indonesia menujukan trend yang semakin menurun dari tahun ke tahun. Keterbatasan penyediaan rumah dan tingginya harga rumah membuat sebagian besar rumah tangga menempuh skema kredit untuk dapat memiliki rumah. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menyelidiki bagaimana hubungan antara ketidakpastian pendapatan (income uncertainty), kendala pembiayaan (credit constraint) dan preferensi risiko (risk preference) rumah tangga terhadap status kepemilikan rumah di Indonesia. Studi ini menggunakan data IFLS Tahun 2007 dan 2014. Estimasi menggunakan variabel dengan metode probit dengan data panel dan probit OLS (ordinaryleast square) pada tahun 2014 dilakukan untuk mengetahui hubungan kausalitas antara ketidakpastian pendapatan (income uncertainty), kendala pembiayaan (credit constraint) dan preferensi risiko (risk preference) dengan status kepemilikan rumah di Indonesia. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Indoensia sebagai negara berkembang menunjukan pengaruh negatif dari ketidakpastian pendapatan (income uncertainty) terhadap status kepemilikan rumah di Indonesia lebih besar bila dibandingkan dengan negara maju lainnya. Sedangkan kendala kredit memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap status kepemilikan rumah di Indonesia, terutama kendala yang bersumber dari keterbatasan kekayaan yang digunakan sebagai jaminan pinjaman.","PeriodicalId":136508,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Statistik Indonesia","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139339331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P. Sihombing, Sigit Budiantono, A. M. Arsani, Triana Mauliasih Aritonang, Mohamad Arif Kurniawan
The happiness index is a parameter used to measure the level of happiness and well-being of people in a particular country or region. This research aims to determine the factors that contribute to people's happiness. In terms of modelling, this study will compare several regressions modelling using machine learning, including regression trees, random forests and Support Vector Regression (SVR). The SVR model has a minor error value in terms of MSE, RMSE and MAE compared to the other three models. The same thing happened when viewed from the value of R2 that the SVR model has an enormous value. This result indicates that SVR modelling is the best of the four models. A comprehensive policy is needed to increase a country's happiness index.
{"title":"Comparison of Regression Analysis with Machine Learning Supervised Predictive Model Techniques","authors":"P. Sihombing, Sigit Budiantono, A. M. Arsani, Triana Mauliasih Aritonang, Mohamad Arif Kurniawan","doi":"10.11594/jesi.03.02.03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11594/jesi.03.02.03","url":null,"abstract":"The happiness index is a parameter used to measure the level of happiness and well-being of people in a particular country or region. This research aims to determine the factors that contribute to people's happiness. In terms of modelling, this study will compare several regressions modelling using machine learning, including regression trees, random forests and Support Vector Regression (SVR). The SVR model has a minor error value in terms of MSE, RMSE and MAE compared to the other three models. The same thing happened when viewed from the value of R2 that the SVR model has an enormous value. This result indicates that SVR modelling is the best of the four models. A comprehensive policy is needed to increase a country's happiness index.","PeriodicalId":136508,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Statistik Indonesia","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139339376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Maria Risnawati, Wardi Syafmen, Bunga Mardhotillahs
Setiap bulan berat emas yang terjual di PT. Pegadaian Area Jambi tidak bisa dipastikan. Data hasil penjualan emas setiap bulannya tidak stabil yang mengalami kenaikan dan penurunan penjualan. Hal tersebut menyebabkan data penjualan emas bersifat fluktuasi. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk meramalkan jumlah penjualan emas pada bulan mendatang. Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Cheng merupakan metode peramalan untuk memprediksi data time series yang pola datanya tidak tetap atau berubah-ubah mengalami penurunan dan kenaikan di setiap periode. Sistem yang digunakan untuk memprediksi data dengan menangkap pola dari data sebelumnya atau data historis disebut sistem Fuzzy Times Series. Dalam penentuan interval, metode Cheng memiliki cara yang agak berbeda dengan membentuk Fuzzy Logical Relationship (FLR) berdasarkan pada urutan dan perulangan FLR yang sama dimasukan semua hubungan dengan pemberian bobot. Penelitian ini menggunakan data Time Series. Data Time Series adalah data yang disusun berdasarkan urutan waktu atau data yang dikumpulkan dari waktu ke waktu atau disebut historis. Waktu yang digunakan pada data penelitian ini yaitu bulanan. Data yang digunakan adalah data penjualan emas di PT. Pegadaian Area Jambi dari bulan Januari 2020 hingga Oktober 2022. Penelitian ini memberikan hasil peramalan terhadap data historis menghasilkan nilai error Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) <10% dan menghasilkan nilai error Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) sebesar 368 gram. Sehingga peramalan untuk bulan November 2022 diprediksi sebesar 4.521 gram. Sehingga metode Fuzzy Time Series Cheng sangat baik diguakan untuk meramalkan rata-rata penjualan emas di PT. Pegadaian Area Jambi.
{"title":"jurnal Prediksi Penjualan Emas di PT. Pegadaian Area Jambi Menggunakan Fuzzy Time Series Cheng","authors":"Maria Risnawati, Wardi Syafmen, Bunga Mardhotillahs","doi":"10.11594/jesi.03.01.06","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11594/jesi.03.01.06","url":null,"abstract":"Setiap bulan berat emas yang terjual di PT. Pegadaian Area Jambi tidak bisa dipastikan. Data hasil penjualan emas setiap bulannya tidak stabil yang mengalami kenaikan dan penurunan penjualan. Hal tersebut menyebabkan data penjualan emas bersifat fluktuasi. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk meramalkan jumlah penjualan emas pada bulan mendatang. \u0000Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Cheng merupakan metode peramalan untuk memprediksi data time series yang pola datanya tidak tetap atau berubah-ubah mengalami penurunan dan kenaikan di setiap periode. Sistem yang digunakan untuk memprediksi data dengan menangkap pola dari data sebelumnya atau data historis disebut sistem Fuzzy Times Series. Dalam penentuan interval, metode Cheng memiliki cara yang agak berbeda dengan membentuk Fuzzy Logical Relationship (FLR) berdasarkan pada urutan dan perulangan FLR yang sama dimasukan semua hubungan dengan pemberian bobot. \u0000Penelitian ini menggunakan data Time Series. Data Time Series adalah data yang disusun berdasarkan urutan waktu atau data yang dikumpulkan dari waktu ke waktu atau disebut historis. Waktu yang digunakan pada data penelitian ini yaitu bulanan. Data yang digunakan adalah data penjualan emas di PT. Pegadaian Area Jambi dari bulan Januari 2020 hingga Oktober 2022. Penelitian ini memberikan hasil peramalan terhadap data historis menghasilkan nilai error Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) <10% dan menghasilkan nilai error Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) sebesar 368 gram. Sehingga peramalan untuk bulan November 2022 diprediksi sebesar 4.521 gram. Sehingga metode Fuzzy Time Series Cheng sangat baik diguakan untuk meramalkan rata-rata penjualan emas di PT. Pegadaian Area Jambi.","PeriodicalId":136508,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Statistik Indonesia","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117078453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study aims to analyze the impact of parents’ employment status mobility on the children’s employment status mobility. In doing so, we applied a two-stage multinomial logistic regression model. In this research, employment status mobility refers to a mobility status from informal to formal jobs and vice versa. Using data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) for the period 2007 and 2014, the profile of the Indonesian workforce was dominated by stayers. The estimation results of multinomial logistic regression indicate that only fathers’ employment status mobility has a significant effect on the children’s employment status mobility, where fathers who are stayers and experiencing upward mobility will provide greater opportunities for their children to be stayers and fewer opportunities to experience downward mobility. Moreover, the employment status mobility of mothers does not have a significant impact on their children’s employment mobility. Our study points out the pivotal role of fathers in influencing employment formalization in Indonesia. Our findings could be valuable inputs for policy-making regarding employment formalization in Indonesia.
{"title":"Employment Formalization in Indonesia: Role of Parents’ Employment Mobility Toward Children’s Employment Mobility","authors":"Kadir Ruslan, Weni Lidya Sukma","doi":"10.11594/jesi.03.01.05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11594/jesi.03.01.05","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to analyze the impact of parents’ employment status mobility on the children’s employment status mobility. In doing so, we applied a two-stage multinomial logistic regression model. In this research, employment status mobility refers to a mobility status from informal to formal jobs and vice versa. Using data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) for the period 2007 and 2014, the profile of the Indonesian workforce was dominated by stayers. The estimation results of multinomial logistic regression indicate that only fathers’ employment status mobility has a significant effect on the children’s employment status mobility, where fathers who are stayers and experiencing upward mobility will provide greater opportunities for their children to be stayers and fewer opportunities to experience downward mobility. Moreover, the employment status mobility of mothers does not have a significant impact on their children’s employment mobility. Our study points out the pivotal role of fathers in influencing employment formalization in Indonesia. Our findings could be valuable inputs for policy-making regarding employment formalization in Indonesia.","PeriodicalId":136508,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Statistik Indonesia","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121232174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The success or downturn of a country's economy can also be measured by its economic growth rate. This study aims to analyze the influence of unemployment rate, poverty, human development index, and population on economic growth, especially in 14 districts/cities of Central province. Kalimantan for the period 2017-2019. The technique used is a regression analysis of panel data with the best model being the fixed effects model (FEM). The test results show that all variables simultaneously affect economic growth. Partially, unemployment and HDI have negative and insignificant effects on economic growth. Second, poverty has a negative and significant impact while the population has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended from the findings of this study that policies are needed to reduce poverty while increasing population so that economic growth can continue to increase.
{"title":"Pengaruh Pengangguran, Kemiskinan, Indeks Pembangunan Manusia, dan Populasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Provinsi Kalimantan Tengah","authors":"Dhinnessa Prabowo, Masruri Muchtar, P. Sihombing","doi":"10.11594/jesi.03.01.03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11594/jesi.03.01.03","url":null,"abstract":"The success or downturn of a country's economy can also be measured by its economic growth rate. This study aims to analyze the influence of unemployment rate, poverty, human development index, and population on economic growth, especially in 14 districts/cities of Central province. Kalimantan for the period 2017-2019. The technique used is a regression analysis of panel data with the best model being the fixed effects model (FEM). The test results show that all variables simultaneously affect economic growth. Partially, unemployment and HDI have negative and insignificant effects on economic growth. Second, poverty has a negative and significant impact while the population has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended from the findings of this study that policies are needed to reduce poverty while increasing population so that economic growth can continue to increase.","PeriodicalId":136508,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Statistik Indonesia","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129043303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The COVID-19 pandemic can be an economic shock for low-income households. Several studies have shown that child labor is a strategy used by households to cope with economic shocks. This shock will exacerbate the phenomenon of child labor. Social protection is a form of mitigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic which is considered able to reduce the number of child labor. Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH) is one of the social protection programs in Indonesia. This study investigates the impact of Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH) on the phenomenon of child labor during the COVID-19 pandemic. To overcome the problem of self-selection, this study applies the variable of interest as an endogenous variable. By using the recursive bivariate probit method, this study concludes that PKH has no impact on reducing the likelihood of a child becoming child labor during the COVID-19 pandemic. To enrich the research, we also investigated the influence of PKH on the phenomenon of child labor in the period before the COVID-19 pandemic and found that PKH had an impact on reducing the likelihood of a child becoming child labor in the period before the COVID-19 pandemic. Several factors that influence the phenomenon of child labor, such as the characteristics of children, the characteristics of the head of the household, household characteristics, and environmental characteristics, have been shown to influence a child's tendency to become child labor, both in both periods (before the pandemic or during the COVID-19 pandemic) and in only one period.
{"title":"Apakah Program Keluarga Harapan Mampu Mengurangi Pekerja Anak di Masa Pandemi COVID-19?","authors":"Mohammad Maulana Ibrahim, I. D. G. K. Wisana","doi":"10.11594/jesi.03.01.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11594/jesi.03.01.04","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic can be an economic shock for low-income households. Several studies have shown that child labor is a strategy used by households to cope with economic shocks. This shock will exacerbate the phenomenon of child labor. Social protection is a form of mitigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic which is considered able to reduce the number of child labor. Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH) is one of the social protection programs in Indonesia. This study investigates the impact of Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH) on the phenomenon of child labor during the COVID-19 pandemic. To overcome the problem of self-selection, this study applies the variable of interest as an endogenous variable. By using the recursive bivariate probit method, this study concludes that PKH has no impact on reducing the likelihood of a child becoming child labor during the COVID-19 pandemic. To enrich the research, we also investigated the influence of PKH on the phenomenon of child labor in the period before the COVID-19 pandemic and found that PKH had an impact on reducing the likelihood of a child becoming child labor in the period before the COVID-19 pandemic. Several factors that influence the phenomenon of child labor, such as the characteristics of children, the characteristics of the head of the household, household characteristics, and environmental characteristics, have been shown to influence a child's tendency to become child labor, both in both periods (before the pandemic or during the COVID-19 pandemic) and in only one period.","PeriodicalId":136508,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Statistik Indonesia","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122321117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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