商业银行不良贷款及其成因:来自越南的证据

Duy Suu Nguyen, Quy Hao Nghiem, Thanh Nhan Thi Do
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摘要

不良贷款(NPLs)是越南所有银行都面临的重要问题,引起了学者们的广泛关注。本研究旨在找出影响越南商业银行不良贷款的因素。本研究采用汇集普通最小二乘法(OLS)、固定效应、随机效应和广义最小二乘法对28家商业银行2008-2019年的年度二次数据进行了检验。与先前的研究一致,主要发现表明宏观经济和微观经济因素影响不良贷款。值得注意的是,信用风险准备金(PCR)对不良贷款率有显著的正向影响。此外,外资持股比例(FOR)和银行规模(size)对不良贷款率有负向影响。特别是针对外资持股与银行业绩的正相关关系,商业银行应扩大规模,提高经营效率。宏观因素方面,国内生产总值(GDP)增长和失业率(UEP)对不良贷款呈显著负相关。因此,越南国家银行和银行需要了解主要原因,因为它们在当前经济环境的背景下与银行直接相关。这是一篇在知识共享署名许可(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)条款下发布的开放获取文章,该许可允许在任何媒介上不受限制地使用、分发和复制,只要原始作品被适当引用。
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Non-Performing Loans of Commercial Banks, and Their Causes: Evidence from Vietnam
Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) are a significant issue for all banks in Vietnam, attracting considerable attention from scholars. Our research aims to nd out the factors that affect the NPLs of Vietnamese commercial banks. The study uses Pooled Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Fixed effect, Random effect, and Generalized Least Square to examine secondary data of 28 commercial banks annually for the period 2008-2019. Consistent with previous research, the main finding shows that macroeconomic and microeconomic factors impact NPLs. Remarkably, provision for credit risk (PCR) has a significantly positive effect on the NPL ratio. Besides, foreign investor ownership (FOR) and bank size (SIZE) negatively affect the NPL ratio. Especially, for the positive correlation between foreign investor ownership and bank performance, the commercial bank should expand to enhance operational efficiency. Regarding macro factors, the results conclude that gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the unemployment rate (UEP) have a significantly negative relationship on NPLs. Therefore, the State Bank of Vietnam and the banks need to understand the leading causes as they directly relate to the banks in the context of the prevailing economic environment.This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium provided the original work is properly cited.
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