长期停滞会是大衰退的结果吗

Özgür Üşenmez, Levent Duman
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摘要

摘要虽然凯恩斯主义和新自由主义关于上一次金融危机的原因和解决方案的讨论一直持续到今天,但劳伦斯·萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)和保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)在2013年底的新论点将辩论转移到了长期停滞的问题上。凯恩斯主义者反对新自由主义对近年来全球经济事件的吝啬分析的不幸,他们认为,发达经济体私人投资的下降是最令人担忧的发展,可能为长期停滞铺平道路。在本文中,在考察了上述讨论的主要原则之后,我们将对政治经济学的两股解释提出质疑,同时我们将提出批判的马克思主义论点,特别是关于利润率下降的论点,与这一讨论越来越相关。关键词。衰退,停滞,政治经济学,凯恩斯主义者,马克思主义者。冻胶。B00 B24。
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Will Secular Stagnation be the Result of Great Recession
Abstract. While Keynesian and neo-liberal discussions on the reasons of and solutions to the last financial crisis have persisted to the present day, new argument from Lawrence Summers and Paul Krugman in late 2013 shifted the debate to the issue of secular stagnation. Opposed to the neo-liberal haplessness regarding a parsimonious analysis of the events of recent years in global economy, Keynesians argued that falling private investment across the advanced economies was the most alarming development that can pave the way for secular stagnation. In this paper, after looking at the main tenets of the above mentioned discussion we will contest the explanations of both strands of political economy, at the same time we will suggest that critical Marxist arguments, especially on falling rate of profit, have been increasingly relevant to this discussion. Keywords. Recession, Stagnation, Political economy, Keynesians, Marxists. JEL. B00, B24.
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