Study on Factors Influencing Public Land Sales Risk: Focused on the Ratio of supply to announcement in the public land development project

This study conducted an empirical analysis by applying a VAR(Vector Auto Regressive) model to analyze the factors affecting land sale risk. As a result of the analysis, the variables that affect the successful bid price rate are identified as housing construction permit records, the real estate sentiment index, the current status of unsold homes, and interest rates. Specifically, in the case of housing construction permits, it initially has a negative(-) effect on the successful bid price rate, and then shows a positive(+) effect after a 3-month lag. The real estate sentiment index initially has a negative(-) effect on the successful bid price rate, and then has a positive(+) effect. As a result of the impact response function analysis, the influence is the largest in the negative(-) direction in the second period, the influence is in the opposite direction from the third period, and the influence converges to zero after the ninth period. In the case of unsold housing, it has a negative(-) effect on the successful bid price rate. As the number of unsold pre-sale houses increased, the successful bid price rate decreases, and the risk of land sale increases. Lastly, in the case of interest rates, it has a negative(-) effect on the successful bid price rate. What is unusual is that the effect of the loan interest rate on the successful bid price rate is greatest in the 5th period, and the direction is consistently confirmed as a negative(-) effect. It is interpreted that the impact of interest rates on the sale risk of land is consistently large.