气候政策下的最优林业

Jani Laturi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

减缓气候变化旨在减少大气中的温室气体。森林通过将大气中的碳积累为生物量来减缓气候变化。这种生物质可以用来生产各种产品,这些产品也可以作为碳汇。碳固存是碳排放的对立面,但并不完全相反。森林碳储量具有不确定性和时间性,但森林作为临时碳储量的作用仍然具有价值。然而,气候政策在实施政策和评估碳汇时都必须考虑到这一点。本文由四篇文章和总结一章组成。文章代表了森林部门以及利用森林和木制品缓解气候变化的不同观点。它们涵盖了对森林的利用,从树木的生长到木制品的使用。在第一篇文章中,我们用年龄分类模型分析了如果有基于森林碳储量的补贴,森林所有者将如何改变他们的森林管理。结果表明,加强对森林生长的投资将增加,森林轮作将延长。我们还研究了造林投资补贴如何影响森林的碳固存。第二篇文章分析了芬兰到2050年的木材消耗和HWP碳储量。主要的HWP碳库由锯木制成的产品组成。即使在锯材消耗减少的情况下,芬兰的HWP碳库似乎也会增加到2050年。第三篇文章涉及最优森林管理,其中森林的生长是由大小类模型描述的。结果表明,大小分类矩阵模型的一个特征显著降低了这些模型的森林经营结果的可比性。森林的最佳间伐强度和轮作长度高度依赖于模型的规格。第四部分分析了欧盟现有的林业气候政策。因为该策略只适用于一个时期,所以我们可以使用一个简单的两时期模型来描述该策略的影响。结果表明,当前气候政策设计的制约因素降低了利用森林减缓气候变化的潜力。文章摘要中的框架补充了文章中的结论,并为森林部门治理以减缓气候变化建立了更全面的结论。
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Optimal forestry under climate policy
Climate change mitigation aims to reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Forest mitigates climate change by accumulating atmospheric carbon to biomass. This biomass can be used to various products which also act as a carbon sink. Carbon sequestration is the opposite of carbon emission, but not fully. Forest carbon storages are uncertain and temporal but the role of forests as temporary carbon storages still has value. However, climate policy must take this into account both in the implementation of policies and in the valuation of carbon sinks. The thesis consists of four articles and a summary chapter. Articles represent different perspectives of the forest sector and the use of forests and wood products to mitigate climate change. They cover the use of forests from the growth of trees to the use of wood products. In the first article we analyze with an age-class model how forest owners will change their forest management if there is a subsidy based on the forest carbon storage. The results show that enhancing investments for forest growth increases and that forest rotation will be longer. We also investigate how subsidies for silvicultural investment will affect carbon sequestration of the forest. The second article analyses wood consumption and HWP carbon stock in Finland until 2050. The main HWP carbon pool consists of products made of sawn wood. The HWP carbon pool in Finland seems to increase until 2050 even in the case of decreasing consumption of sawn wood. The third article deals with optimal forest management where the growth of the forest is described by a size-class model. The results show a feature on size-classified matrix models that significantly reduces the comparability of forest management results of these models. The optimal thinning intensity and rotation length of forest are highly dependent of the specification of the model. The fourth article analyzes the existing climate policy for forestry in the EU. Because the policy only applies to one period, we can use a simple two-period model to describe the impact of the policy. The results show that constraints on current climate policy design reduce the potential of using forests to mitigate climate change. The framework in the summary of the articles complements the conclusions in the articles and builds a view towards a more comprehensive conclusion for governance of forest sector to mitigate climate change.
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