阿塞拜疆实际汇率失调

Hasanov Fakhri, Fariz Huseynov
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引用次数: 5

摘要

通过使用2001-2007年的季度数据并应用各种方法,我们估计了阿塞拜疆马纳特(AZN)的实际均衡汇率偏差,并发现AZN略微高估。购买力平价方法不能解释均衡汇率。然而,使用行为和永久均衡汇率方法,我们发现相对生产率、贸易条件、贸易开放、净外国资产、政府支出和石油价格是失调的主要决定因素。
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Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Azerbaijan
By using quarterly data from 2001-2007 and applying various approaches, we estimate real equilibrium exchange rate misalignment for Azerbaijani Manat (AZN) and find that AZN is slightly overvalued. Purchasing power parity approach does not explain the equilibrium exchange rate. However using behavioral and permanent equilibrium exchange rate approaches, we find that the relative productivity, terms of trade, trade openness, net foreign assets, government expenditures and oil prices are the main determinants of misalignment.
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