宿命论,决定论和非决定论

N. P. Stallknecht
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摘要

虽然我同意兰格夫人最近发表的文章《论科学宿命论中的谬误》(《国际伦理学杂志》,1936年7月)中非常合理的中心论点,但我觉得她对决定论的描述很难公正地对待反对这一学说的思想流派。我坦率地承认,不能把兰格夫人和许多现代作家认为科学不可缺少的前提——决定论——与宿命论相混淆,因为宿命论认为我们的个人努力是徒劳的,因为我们的未来已经决定了。很明显,在一个确定的宇宙中,这样的结论本身影响着我们的未来,因此,可以说,搁置了它自己的格言,即我们的决定是无效的。只有在一种脱离科学决定论公理的宿命论中,这样的态度才真正自在。此外,在决定论下,有意识的决定是可预测的这一论断确实受到了一些非常重要的限制。例如,如果我知道一个预测,它可能会使我的行动朝着相反的方向发展。一般地说,即使我们认为上帝是有预见的精神,我们也必须承认,预见的行为本身并不能成为这种预见所涉及的宇宙的一部分。当然,它不可能与宇宙有因果关系,除非它的断言以一种未包括在预测中的方式影响事件。(然而,我可能会评论说,在某些决定论神学中,上帝的远见和预见被认为是一种相同的超时间行为,通过这种行为,世界不是每时每刻都在维持,而是时时刻刻都在维持。在这里,神的预见不会改变任何事物,也不会使一件事物与另一件事物截然不同,而是在它们的整个历史中维持一切事物。然而,我承认,理想预见的概念只不过是一种维辛格式的偏见。尽管如此,我坚持认为,对决定论的合理厌恶并非基于这样一种令人厌恶的观念,即其他心灵比我们更了解我们的未来。因此,不可能对我们的行为进行真正详尽的预测的论点,即使是有效的,也不能消除决定论的真正刺痛。如果可能的话,理性的不确定性主义者想要维护的是意识或自我在决定个人行为过程中的真正功效。今天,这种学说真正危险的对手不是宿命论,而是兰格夫人所描述的一种站得住脚的论点,既不激进,甚至也不值得争论。这可能看起来
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Fatalism, Determinism, and Indeterminism
W H rHILE agreeing with the very reasonable central thesis of Mrs. Langer's recent article "On a Fallacy in Scientific Fatalism" (International Journal of Ethics, July, I936) I feel that her account of determinism hardly does justice to the schools of thought that oppose this doctrine. I admit straightaway that the determinism which Mrs. Langer and so many modern writers attribute to science as its indispensable presupposition is not to be confused with a fatalism whereby our individual effort is thought to be rendered futile because our future is already determined. It is obvious that in a determined universe such a conclusion itself influences our future and thus, so to speak, suspends its own maxim of the ineffectual nature of our decisions. Only in a fatalism free from the axioms of scientific determinism would such an attitude really be at home. Further, it is true that under determinism certain very important limitations surround the assertion that conscious decisions are predictable. For instance, if a prediction is known to me it may condition my action in an opposite direction. In general, and this even if we consider God as the foreseeing mind, we must admit that the act of foresight cannot itself be a part of the universe to which such foresight refers. Certainly it cannot be causally related to the universe without by its very assertion influencing events in a manner not included in the prediction. (I might comment, however, that in certain determinist theologies God's vision and prevision are considered as one identical supra-temporal act by which the world is maintained not moment by moment but totum simul. Here divine foresight changes nothing or causes no one thing as distinct from another but maintains all things in their total history.) However, I admit that the concept of ideal prevision is no more than a Vaihinger als ob. Nonetheless, I insist that reasonable dislike of determinism is not based upon the distasteful notion that some other mind knows more of our future than we do. Hence the argument that there can be no actually exhaustive prediction of our actions, even if valid, does not remove the real sting of determinism. What the reasonable indeterminist desires to safeguard, if possible, is the real efficacy of consciousness or the self in determining the individual's course of action. Today the really dangerous rival of this doctrine is not fatalism but the very determinism which Mrs. Langer describes as a tenable thesis, neither very radical nor even debatable. This may seem at
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