农业融资-农业部门产出关系:尼日利亚经济案例研究

F. Helen
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摘要

题为“农业融资-农业部门产出关系:在尼日利亚”的研究报告调查了公共和私营农业融资对作物生产和畜牧生产这两个主要农业部门产出的影响。本文制定了三个研究目标:考察农业融资对作物生产产出和畜牧业生产产出的长期和短期关系,考察农业融资与农业部门产出之间的因果关系。为了实现这些目标,本研究采用了两个模型,每个模型使用1981年至2019年的时间序列数据,分别使用ARDL检验、边界检验和格兰杰因果检验。数据来自CBN和世界银行数据库。因变量分别为作物生产产量和畜牧生产产量,自变量为公共财政、商业银行对农业信贷、通货膨胀率和利率。采用描述性统计对模型进行检验,分析因变量和自变量之间关系的显著性。结果表明,公共和私人融资在短期内都是积极的,但不显著。从长期来看,公共财政仍然是微不足道的,而私人财政是积极和重要的。因此,在提高农业产出方面,私人融资比公共融资更有效。该研究还揭示了利率与这一时期作物和牲畜产量之间的长期负相关关系。因此,建议政府鼓励私人投资农业活动,并采取措施遏制腐败和贪污。政府还应确保以低利率向农民提供信贷,以减少不利影响。
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Agricultural Financing - Agricultural Sector Output Nexus: A Case Study of The Nigerian Economy
The study “Agricultural Financing -Agricultural sector output nexus: in Nigeria” investigated the effect of agricultural financing, both public and private on the outputs of two main sectors of agriculture: crop production and livestock production. Three objectives were formulated to provide guide to this study: examine the long and short run relationship of agricultural financing on crop production output and livestock production output, and to examine the causal relationship between agricultural financing and agricultural sector output.  To achieve these objectives, the study employed two models, each using ARDL Test, Bounds Test, and Granger causality test using time series data from 1981 to 2019.Data was obtained from CBN and World Bank data base. Dependent variables were Crop Production output and Livestock Production output respectively and independent variables were Public Finance, Commercial Bank Credit to Agriculture, Inflation Rate and Interest Rate. The model was tested using descriptive statistics to analyse the significance of the relationship between the dependent and independent variables.  The results show that both public and private finance were positive but insignificant in the short run. In the long run, public finance remained insignificant whereas private finance was positive and significant. Thus, private financing is more effective at improving agricultural output than public finance. The study also revealed a negative long run relationship between interest rate and the outputs of crop and livestock production during the period. It is therefore recommended that the government encourages private investment in agricultural activity, and puts measures in place to curb corruption and embezzlement. Government should also ensure that credit facilities are provided to farmers at low interest rate to reduce detrimental influences.
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