中俄科技合作:是利还是弊?

Jun Li, Irina S. Pylaeva, Maria V. Podshivalova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

中俄科技合作问题是中俄两国经济学家共同研究的课题。然而,将两国的主要科技指标(MSTI)和制裁对科技发展的影响系统化的研究仍然很少。填补这一研究空白是目前贡献的目标。在方法上,本文以宏观经济分析为基础。方法包括回顾性比较分析、分组分析、SWOT分析等。这些数据来自俄罗斯联邦国家统计局、世界银行和中国国家统计局。本文通过对中俄科技发展成功因素的分析,发现中俄两国科技发展成功的共同因素是高质量的人力资本。MSTI对各国2010-2021年的分析,如研发支出占GDP的比例、发明专利数量占该国劳动年龄人口的比例、高技术进出口占GDP的比例、国际出版活动等,显示出各国在规模上的差异。对中俄科技合作的SWOT分析表明,中俄科技合作面临的主要威胁是制裁压力。作者认为,这种合作并没有促进俄罗斯的科技发展;此外,它本身可能使国家处于危险之中,因为它可能变成中华人民共和国的资源附属物。研究结果可用于制定中俄科技合作的路线图和战略。
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Sino-Russian cooperation in science and technology: A benefit or a harm?
The issues of Sino-Russian cooperation in science and technology are the subject of the studies by both Russian and Chinese economists. However, there are still few works that systematise the main science and technology indicators (MSTI) of both countries and the impact of sanctions on the science and technology development. Filling this research gap is the goal of the present contribution. Methodologically, the paper is based on macroeconomic analysis. The methods include retrospective and comparative analysis, grouping, as well as SWOT analysis. The data were sourced from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, the World Bank, and the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The paper identifies success factors behind China and Russia’s science and technology development and reveals that the common factor for both countries is high quality of human capital. The MSTI analysis of each country for the period of 2010–2021, such as the share of R&D expenditure in GDP, the ratio of patents issued on inventions to country’s workingage population, the share of high-tech exports and imports in GDP, international publication activity, etc. demonstrates national differences in their scale. The SWOT analysis of the Sino-Russian cooperation in science and technology shows that the main threat to the cooperation is the sanctions pressure. The authors conclude that such cooperation does not promote Russia’s science and technology development; moreover, it may itself put the country in jeopardy as it could turn into a resource appendage of the PRC. The findings can be useful in the development of road maps and strategies for the implementation of cooperation in science and technology between China and Russia.
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16 weeks
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