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The effect of transport parameters on regional economic development: The case of the Ural Federal District 交通参数对地区经济发展的影响:乌拉尔联邦区的案例
Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.29141/2658-5081-2024-25-2-4
Svetlana Pyankova, Ekaterina S. Zakolyukina
The transport has a special role to play in the regional socioeconomic development, which changes depending on the prevailing trends for population mobility, introduction of advanced technologies, extension of economic connections, and growth in regional production. The study explores the problem of the interface between transport and regional economy on the example of the Ural Federal District. Methodologically, it relies on the theories of spatial development and regional economics. The main method of research is correlation and regression analysis. The evidence is the socioeconomic data on transport as well as values of gross regional product of the Ural Federal District for 2010–2020 sourced from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation. The paper develops a model for forecasting GRP. The analysis indicates the presence of the relationship between the socioeconomic metrics of the transport sector and gross regional product of the Ural Federal District. In particular, there is the correlation between the indicators “density of public roads with hard surface”, “deaths in road accidents per 100,000 population” and gross regional product of the Ural Federal District. The paper concludes about the need to develop a composite indicator for assessing the transport sector that will reflect the ongoing digital modernisation and introduction of innovations.
交通在地区社会经济发展中扮演着特殊的角色,其变化取决于人口流动、引进先进技术、扩大经济联系和地区生产增长的主要趋势。本研究以乌拉尔联邦区为例,探讨了交通与地区经济之间的联系问题。在方法论上,研究以空间发展和区域经济学理论为基础。研究的主要方法是相关和回归分析。证据是俄罗斯联邦国家统计局提供的 2010-2020 年乌拉尔联邦区交通社会经济数据和地区生产总值数值。本文建立了一个预测地区生产总值的模型。分析表明运输部门的社会经济指标与乌拉尔联邦区的地区生产总值之间存在关系。尤其是 "硬路面公共道路密度"、"每十万人口交通事故死亡人数 "指标与乌拉尔联邦区地区生产总值之间存在相关性。本文的结论是,有必要制定一个综合指标来评估交通部门,以反映正在进行的数字化现代化和引进创新。
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引用次数: 0
The level of medical care accessibility in Russia: Regional differentiation 俄罗斯的医疗服务可及性水平:地区差异
Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.29141/2658-5081-2024-25-2-5
Natalya V. Krivenko
The need to consider economic risks and respond to demographic challenges pushes the issues of creating and maintaining the quality of regions’ human potential, as well as saving population health to the research agenda. The aim of the study is to investigate the resourcing of regional health care systems in Russia in order to determine the level of medical care accessibility. Methodologically, the paper relies on the concepts of systems and regional economics, labour economics. The study applies time series and comparative analyses, as well as index, score-rating methods, composite coefficients calculation. The data is the socioeconomic and health care statistics by federal districts for 2005–2022 taken from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation. The paper finds that regions differ in terms of the level of the medical care accessibility. Reportedly, the Ural Federal District ranked high for the efficiency of regional health care systems in 2021, which, according to the analysis, is due to the developed systems of preventive and emergency care. Conversely, the Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts were at the bottom of the ranking because of the deficit of physicians in emergency departments and scarce health care financing. The findings may underlie the development of measures on the improvement of health care resourcing, management, and efficiency both at national and regional levels.
考虑经济风险和应对人口挑战的需要将创造和保持地区人力潜力质量以及挽救人口健康的问题推上了研究议程。本研究旨在调查俄罗斯地区医疗保健系统的资源配置情况,以确定医疗保健的可及性水平。在方法论上,本文依据的是系统经济学和区域经济学、劳动经济学的概念。研究采用了时间序列和比较分析,以及指数、评分方法和综合系数计算方法。数据来源于俄罗斯联邦国家统计局 2005-2022 年按联邦区分列的社会经济和医疗统计数据。本文发现,各地区在医疗服务可及性方面存在差异。据报道,乌拉尔联邦区在 2021 年的地区医疗保健系统效率方面名列前茅。相反,西伯利亚联邦区和远东联邦区由于急诊科医生短缺和医疗资金匮乏而排名垫底。这些研究结果可以为在国家和地区层面制定改善医疗资源配置、管理和效率的措施提供依据。
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引用次数: 0
CAMELS parameters’ impact on the risk of losing financial stability: The case of Russian banks CAMELS 参数对丧失金融稳定性风险的影响:俄罗斯银行案例
Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.29141/2658-5081-2024-25-2-7
E. Shershneva
The banking sector stability determines the financial immunity of a national economy. Current economic and political tensions precondition the need for predicative diagnosis of factors behind a decrease in a bank’s financial stability taking into account national specificities. The paper aims to explore the impact of intrabank parameters on a risk of deteriorated financial stability of Russian banks. The methodological basis of the study is the theory of financial management as applied to the banking practice. The research methods include content analysis, multiple regression, and logit modelling. The evidence comes from the published financial statements of Russian banks for 2018–2023. The paper suggests an approach for rating banks according to their financial stability and develops logit models for evaluating the risk of losing financial stability based on the CAMELS parameters. The analysis demonstrates a noticeable positive impact of the return on assets and a noticeable negative effect of the overdue loans share on a bank’s financial stability. At the same time, capital adequacy and current liquidity produce an ambiguous effect on the financial strength: they are significant only up to a certain point, after passing which they no longer exert any impact on the financial stability (the so-called “surplus paradox”). The study finds that the impact of the parameters differs for the mediumand long-term forecasting horizons: for a 6-month period, the return on assets is a more significant predictor of the financial instability risk, while the overdue loans share is more important for a 12-month period. The findings extend the understanding of the influence that bank’s internal factors have on their financial stability and can be useful in building the algorithms for analysing and forecasting banking risks.
银行业的稳定性决定了国家经济的金融免疫力。当前的经济和政治紧张局势为预测银行金融稳定性下降背后的因素提供了先决条件,同时也考虑到了各国的具体情况。本文旨在探讨银行内部参数对俄罗斯银行金融稳定性下降风险的影响。研究的方法论基础是应用于银行实践的财务管理理论。研究方法包括内容分析、多元回归和对数模型。证据来自俄罗斯银行公布的 2018-2023 年财务报表。论文提出了一种根据财务稳定性对银行进行评级的方法,并根据 CAMELS 参数建立了评估失去财务稳定性风险的 logit 模型。分析表明,资产收益率对银行的财务稳定性有明显的积极影响,而逾期贷款份额则有明显的消极影响。与此同时,资本充足率和当前流动性对财务实力的影响模棱两可:它们只在某一点上有显著影响,过了这一点就不再对财务稳定性产生任何影响(即所谓的 "盈余悖论")。研究发现,在中长期预测范围内,参数的影响是不同的:在 6 个月期间,资产收益率对金融不稳定风险的预测更为重要,而在 12 个月期间,逾期贷款份额更为重要。这些发现拓展了人们对银行内部因素对其金融稳定性影响的理解,有助于建立分析和预测银行风险的算法。
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引用次数: 0
Evolution of Ural cities at the turn of the 20th–21st centuries 20-21 世纪之交乌拉尔城市的演变
Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.29141/2658-5081-2024-25-2-3
E. Animitsa, N. Vlasova, Yakov P. Silin
The growth of cities and the transformation of their urban structure reflect the impact of numerous factors: economic, political, social, ideological and others. The Ural region with its concentration of larger cities is among the most urbanised in Russia. The paper explores the urbanistic processes in the Ural region at the turn of the 20th–21st centuries in the context general economic, political and moral factors. The methodological basis of the research rests on the theories of urbanisation and urban development, and the evolutionary approach. The study uses analytical, statistical, and comparative methods. The data for 1989–2022 reflecting the dynamics of urbanistic processes is taken from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation. The boundaries of the Ural agglomerations are sourced from the official territorial and strategic planning documents. The findings indicate several trends in the transformation of the Ural settlement system and its urbanistic structure, in particular, a qualitative change of the cities’ industrial structure, a decrease in the employment in industry and a fall in the urban population, intensification of agglomerations processes and population tending to concentrate in larger cities. The indicated processes of deurbanisation and deindustrialisation of the Ural region result in the augmented share of larger cities, greater imbalance between size groups of cities. The paper is the first to describe the Ural Urban Square that encompasses four larger urban agglomerations – Ekaterinburg, Chelyabinsk, Ufa, and Perm. The paper underscores that the Ural Urban Square becomes a place of concentration of investment, human, economic, and social resources, the core of the development of the Ural macroregion and its neighboring territories.
城市的发展和城市结构的变化反映了经济、政治、社会、意识形态等诸多因素的影响。乌拉尔地区集中了众多大城市,是俄罗斯城市化程度最高的地区之一。本文探讨了 20-21 世纪之交乌拉尔地区在一般经济、政治和道德因素背景下的城市化进程。研究的方法论基础是城市化和城市发展理论以及进化方法。研究采用了分析、统计和比较方法。1989-2022 年反映城市化进程动态的数据来自俄罗斯联邦国家统计局。乌拉尔城市群的边界来自官方领土和战略规划文件。研究结果表明了乌拉尔居住系统及其城市结构变化的几种趋势,特别是城市产业结构的质变、工业就业率的下降、城市人口的减少、城市群进程的加强以及人口向大城市集中的趋势。乌拉尔地区的非城市化和非工业化进程导致大城市的份额增加,城市规模之间的不平衡加剧。本文首次描述了乌拉尔城市广场,它包括四个较大的城市群--叶卡捷琳堡、车里雅宾斯克、乌法和彼尔姆。论文强调,乌拉尔城市广场是投资、人力、经济和社会资源的集中地,是乌拉尔宏观地区及其邻近地区发展的核心。
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引用次数: 0
Nation brand: A systems approach to the creation and management 民族品牌:创建和管理民族品牌的系统方法
Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.29141/2658-5081-2024-25-2-2
Olga A. ч Olga A. Kusraeva
A nation brand impacts on a country’s economic development, stimulating or, contrarily, limiting people and organisations’ readiness to invest various resources within a particular jurisdiction. Simultaneously, a nation brand originates in all activities of organisations operating in the country’s territory. The paper aims to develop theoretical foundations of the nation brand management as a system. The methodological basis of the study is the concept of nation branding and the systems approach. A set of general scientific methods of analysis, synthesis, systematisation and generalisation are used. As a result, the paper provides and describes a system for the nation brand management that comprises input (existing perception of a country), transformation processes (creation of an image), and output (the image shaped). The value of the developed system lies in its ability to coordinate the interests of diverse stakeholders. The article presents a vision of 7-S model implementation for the nation brand based on the understanding of the relationships that lead to the formation of nation brand as well as the representation of external and internal dynamic processes that evolve over time, etc. The findings contribute to grasping the essence of the nation brand management using the principles of the systems approach, which potentially enhances the country’s economic development.
国家品牌影响着一个国家的经济发展,刺激或限制人们和组织在特定辖区内投入各种资源的意愿。同时,国家品牌也源于在该国领土上运营的组织的所有活动。本文旨在为作为一个系统的国家品牌管理奠定理论基础。研究的方法论基础是国家品牌概念和系统方法。本文采用了一套分析、综合、系统化和概括的一般科学方法。因此,本文提供并描述了一个国家品牌管理系统,该系统包括输入(对国家的现有认知)、转换过程(创建形象)和输出(塑造的形象)。所开发系统的价值在于其协调不同利益相关者利益的能力。文章基于对国家品牌形成关系的理解,以及对随时间演变的外部和内部动态过程的表述等,提出了国家品牌 7-S 模型的实施愿景。研究结果有助于利用系统方法的原则把握国家品牌管理的本质,从而有可能促进国家的经济发展。
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引用次数: 0
Food retail in rural areas: Choosing the optimal format 农村地区的食品零售:选择最佳业态
Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.29141/2658-5081-2024-25-2-6
Victor Ye. Kovalev, E. Antineskul
Tightening competition among food retailers stimulates them to develop new formats of stores for urban spaces, which also can be economically efficient in rural areas. Appearance of a new format of stores that excites clientele’s interest and is able to compete with pick-up points and liquor stores may become a key to the domination in the market. The paper examines the prospects of creating an optimal format for food retailers that hold potential for spread in rural areas. Methodologically, the study relies on a systems approach, the cyclical theory of retail, and spatial development theories. The method encompasses three stages: first, holding a comparative analysis of the format structure of food retailers for 2015–2023; second, evaluating the territorial distribution of the two formats of retail chains (hard discounters and convenience stores) using the case of Volga and Ural Federal Districts; third, determining new formats of retail chains outside cities. Based on the analysis of market trends in the development of retail chain stores the paper suggests a conceptual model of the optimal retail format for rural areas with respect to product range, pricing, distribution of sales area, and additional services. The suggestions about the improvements in the model of the retail format for rural areas may spur the retail trade growth and promote the development of trade infrastructure outside urban areas.
食品零售商之间的竞争日趋激烈,这促使他们为城市空间开发新的商店业态,这在农村地区同样具有经济效益。出现一种既能激发顾客兴趣,又能与提货点和酒类专卖店竞争的新业态,可能会成为主导市场的关键。本文探讨了创建食品零售商最佳业态的前景,这种业态具有在农村地区推广的潜力。在方法上,研究依赖于系统方法、零售业周期理论和空间发展理论。该方法包括三个阶段:第一,对 2015-2023 年食品零售商的业态结构进行比较分析;第二,以伏尔加和乌拉尔联邦区为例,评估两种零售连锁业态(硬折扣店和便利店)的地域分布情况;第三,确定城市外新的零售连锁业态。根据对零售连锁店发展市场趋势的分析,本文提出了农村地区最佳零售业态的概念模型,涉及产品种类、定价、销售区域分布和附加服务。关于改进农村地区零售业态模式的建议可能会刺激零售业的增长,并促进城市以外地区贸易基础设施的发展。
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引用次数: 0
The multilevel management system for Russian economy amid sanctions 制裁中的俄罗斯经济多级管理体系
Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.29141/2658-5081-2024-25-2-1
E. Balatsky
In the face of large-scale international sanctions imposed by the collective West against Russia, it becomes imperative to reevaluate the conventional framework for guiding the Russian economy amid the emerging challenges and limitations. The article explores a multilevel system for managing Russian economy in the context of the global confrontation. The methodological foundation resides in the selective “incremental changes ideology” emphasising the necessity for disaggregation and decentralisation of economic policies to maximise the timeliness of managerial decisions. This approach contrasts with the holistic “total regulation ideology”, which focuses on the national development strategy on planning and reaching aggregate economic indicators. The paper applies the methods of traditional structural cybernetic and graphical modelling of social systems allowing for the specificities of the external environment. The evidence comes from a cluster of the most recent studies approaching the role of the international sanctions phenomenon in building an efficient national economy from different angles. The author presents an original graphical four-circuit concentric model complemented by a functional description of its constituent circuits (the core, priority industries, new production, and supporting industries) and management methods. The article provides examples of the management measures (massive centralised lending for new microchip production, creation of the state corporation Rospharma, etc.) that can be implemented within the four circuits of the model. These measures can be both soft (‘weak’) and hard (‘strong’) depending on whether they reject or take on administrative enforcement. It is noteworthy that the selective governance model will gradually evolve into a holistic model over time.
面对西方集体对俄罗斯实施的大规模国际制裁,当务之急是在新出现的挑战和限制中重新评估指导俄罗斯经济的传统框架。文章探讨了在全球对抗背景下管理俄罗斯经济的多层次体系。其方法论基础在于选择性的 "渐进变革思想",强调经济政策必须分解和分散,以最大限度地提高管理决策的时效性。这种方法与整体性的 "全面调控思想 "形成鲜明对比,后者将国家发展战略的重点放在规划和实现总体经济指标上。本文采用了传统的结构控制论和社会系统图形建模方法,考虑到了外部环境的特殊性。证据来自于从不同角度探讨国际制裁现象在建设高效国民经济中的作用的最新研究。作者提出了一个独创的四回路同心模型,并对其组成回路(核心、优先产业、新生产和辅助产业)和管理方法进行了功能描述。文章举例说明了可在该模型的四个回路中实施的管理措施(大规模集中借贷用于新的微型芯片生产、创建国有企业 Rospharma 等)。这些措施可以是软性的("弱"),也可以是硬性的("强"),取决于它们是拒绝还是采取行政强制措施。值得注意的是,随着时间的推移,选择性治理模式将逐渐演变为整体模式。
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引用次数: 0
Crisis resilience assessment and management of public utility companies 公用事业公司的危机复原力评估和管理
Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI: 10.29141/2658-5081-2024-25-1-7
Irina Tkachenko, Ivan Chechulin
Currently, the most frequently used models for forecasting the probability of company bankruptcy in the housing and utilities sector lack accuracy. The hypothesis is put forward that crisis resilience of a company can be assessed based on its adaptive capabilities. The paper aims to construct a more accurate compared to the known regression model for predicting bankruptcies, as well as develop models for assessing the quality of crisis adaptation management at public utility companies allowing for the stakeholders’ interests and peculiarities of their interface. The methodological basis of the study consists of the theory of crisis management and a stakeholder approach. The methods include multiple regression analysis, stakeholder mapping, sociological survey, and expert assessments. The evidence comes from the accounting and statistical reporting of 49 public utility companies, materials of arbitration cases, survey results of 33 heads of organisations obtained in the period from February to March 2023. The theoretical developments are implemented within the empirical studies of public utility companies. To improve crisis adaptation and resilience of public utility companies the findings recommend to launch staff training programmes, establish mechanisms for horizontal intra-sectoral connections and maintain cooperation at the level of public authorities in order to control investments in the housing and utilities sector.
目前,住房和公用事业部门最常用的公司破产概率预测模型缺乏准确性。本文提出的假设是,可以根据公司的适应能力来评估公司的危机应变能力。本文旨在构建一个比已知预测破产的回归模型更准确的模型,并开发用于评估公用事业公司危机适应管理质量的模型,同时考虑到利益相关者的利益及其界面的特殊性。研究的方法论基础包括危机管理理论和利益相关者方法。研究方法包括多元回归分析、利益相关者绘图、社会学调查和专家评估。证据来自 49 家公用事业公司的会计和统计报告、仲裁案件材料以及 2023 年 2 月至 3 月期间获得的 33 位组织负责人的调查结果。在对公用事业公司的实证研究中实现了理论发展。为提高公用事业公司的危机适应能力和复原力,研究结果建议启动员工培训计划,建立部门内横向联系机制,并保持公共当局层面的合作,以控制住房和公用事业部门的投资。
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引用次数: 0
Development of Russia’s industry: Some regularities and prospects 俄罗斯工业的发展:一些规律和前景
Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI: 10.29141/2658-5081-2024-25-1-1
Oleg Sukharev
Industry is the substratum of material production and the economy as a whole. Numerous discussions about the need for new industrialisation make us turn again to the analysis of the state of industrial potential and results of industrial development in Russia. The study aims to explain the performance of the Russian industry in terms of the most relevant and aggregated indicators characterising its functioning, and to formulate its long-term development tasks. The methodological basis of the study is the theory of industrial development. Methods of planning and industrial analysis are used. The evidence is the data for 2012–2022 retrieved from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation and the Unified Interdepartmental Statistical Information System. The research concludes about the ‘contracted’ development of the Russian industry. The growth rate of the gross value added is more significantly impacted by the dynamics of fixed capital rather than that of labour. Yet the labour contributed greatly to the creation of the new value, which indicates the predominance of labour-intensive technologies, or obsolete capital-intensive technologies. The study empirically confirms that some periods saw a ‘paradox of rapid industrialisation’, that is, a substantially lower rate of economic growth against a higher growth of industry and modernisation of its fixed assets. The general conclusion is that when conducting industrial policy, it is necessary to influence the state of the labour and capital factors in the manufacturing sectors. The industrialisation of the Russian economy needs to be oriented towards the technological substitution through the creation of new fixed assets; in addition, the losses of greatly reduced labour potential should be compensated. A promising avenue is the organisation of analytical planning for the state-owned industry and indicative planning for private industries along with the adoption of a law on the state sector.
工业是物质生产和整个经济的基础。关于新型工业化必要性的大量讨论使我们再次转向对俄罗斯工业潜力和工业发展成果的分析。本研究旨在从最相关的综合指标来解释俄罗斯工业的运行情况,并制定其长期发展任务。研究的方法论基础是工业发展理论。采用了规划和工业分析方法。证据是从俄罗斯联邦国家统计局和部门间统一统计信息系统获取的 2012-2022 年数据。研究得出了俄罗斯工业 "收缩式 "发展的结论。总增加值的增长率受固定资本而非劳动力动态的影响更为显著。然而,劳动力为创造新价值做出了巨大贡献,这表明劳动密集型技术或过时的资本密集型技术占主导地位。研究从经验上证实,某些时期出现了 "快速工业化的悖论",即经济增长率大大降低,而工业增长和固定资产现代化程度却较高。总的结论是,在实施工业政策时,有必要对制造业部门的劳动力和资本要素状况施加影响。俄罗斯经济的工业化需要通过创造新的固定资产来实现技术替代;此外,还应补偿因劳动力潜力大幅下降而造成的损失。一个有前途的途径是,在通过国有部门法的同时,组织国有工业的分析性规划和私营工业的指示性规划。
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引用次数: 0
Institutional barriers to the development of small-scale power generation in Russia 俄罗斯发展小型发电的体制障碍
Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI: 10.29141/2658-5081-2024-25-1-6
Mikhail Kozhevnikov, Artem Dvinyaninov, Nikita Sapozhnikov
The energy strategy of Russia involves a transition to a diversified energy generation characterised by a structural diversity of plant types, as well as the use of small-scale energy technologies. The purpose of the study is to identify the barriers that hinder the implementation of small-scale power generation in the Russian Federation and justify the avenues for its development. Methodologically, the paper relies on the systems approach. Methods of content and logical structural analysis, in-depth interviews are applied. The empirical evidence comes from analytical reports, normative and legal documents, as well as results of surveys of 96 specialists in the field and heads of power plants and power engineering enterprises conducted during 2021– 2023. The findings indicate there are four groups of problems in the Russian energy system: technological backwardness; difficulties with integration of small-scale power generation facilities into the energy market; absence of state support mechanisms; surplus of power generation capacity. Accordingly, the paper provides recommendations for overcoming them, in particular, it is necessary to introduce mechanisms for the support of small-scale power engineering and integration with engineering and consultancy companies, as well as make use of energy service agreements; second, to introduce standards for connecting small-scale power generation facilities, develop guidelines for designing and commissioning them; third, to amend tax regulations and learn from successful foreign experience; fourth, to replace retired power generation equipment with new small-scale power generation facilities located closer to load centres. The theoretical significance of the research is linked with detailing the concept “small-scale power generation” as a segment of energy sector as well as its structure in relation to the Russian Federation, specifying classification characteristics of low-capacity power units. The findings are practically valuable for government authorities, power generation enterprises and equipment manufacturers due to the developed organisational and methodological guidelines.
俄罗斯的能源战略包括向多元化能源发电过渡,其特点是发电厂类型的结构多样性以及小型能源技术的使用。本研究的目的是找出阻碍俄罗斯联邦实施小型发电技术的障碍,并证明其发展途径的合理性。在方法上,本文采用了系统方法。采用了内容和逻辑结构分析、深入访谈等方法。经验证据来自分析报告、规范和法律文件,以及 2021-2023 年期间对 96 名该领域专家、发电厂和电力工程企业负责人的调查结果。调查结果显示,俄罗斯能源系统存在四类问题:技术落后;小型发电设施难以融入能源市场;缺乏国家支持机制;发电能力过剩。因此,本文提出了克服这些问题的建议,特别是有必要引入支持小型发电工程的机制,与工程和咨询公司进行整合,并利用能源服务协议;第二,引入连接小型发电设施的标准,制定设计和调试指南;第三,修订税收法规,借鉴国外成功经验;第四,在靠近负荷中心的地方新建小型发电设施,取代退役发电设备。研究的理论意义在于详细阐述 "小型发电 "这一能源行业的概念及其与俄罗斯联邦相关的结构,明确低容量发电设备的分类特征。由于制定了组织和方法指南,研究结果对政府部门、发电企业和设备制造商具有实际价值。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of New Economy
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