(不是)在竞选活动中解决问题

IF 0.6 4区 社会学 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Journal of Theoretical Politics Pub Date : 2023-09-26 DOI:10.1177/09516298231202424
Salvador Barberà, Anke Gerber
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引用次数: 0

摘要

竞选期间,两位候选人可能会提出一些问题进行辩论,而回避其他问题。我们提出了一个模型,在这个模型中,决定引入一个问题,或者回答对手对她提出的一个问题的立场,可能会改变最终讨论的主题列表。候选人的战略决策是由他们在竞选结束时对自己预期选票份额的评估驱动的。在竞选期间观察到的真实现象,比如两党在解决相同问题上的趋同,或者他们在处理哪些问题上的分歧选择,或者问题所有权的相关性,都可以用我们鲜明的基本模型来解释。最重要的是,我们的分析基于一种新的平衡概念,避免了(通常是任意的)使用预先确定的协议。这使我们不仅可以内生地预测每个候选人将触及的主题列表,而且还可以预测他们将被处理的顺序。
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(Not) Addressing issues in electoral campaigns
Two candidates competing for election may raise some issues for debate during the electoral campaign, while avoiding others. We present a model in which the decision to introduce an issue, or to reply to the opponent’s position on one that she raised, may change the further list of topics that end up being discussed. Candidates’ strategic decisions are driven by their appraisal of their expected vote share at the end of the campaign. Real phenomena observed during campaigns, like the convergence of the parties to address the same issues, or else their diverging choice on which ones to treat, or the relevance of issue ownership can be explained within our stark basic model. Most importantly, our analysis is based on a novel concept of equilibrium that avoids the (often arbitrary) use of predetermined protocols. This allows us to endogenously predict not only the list of topics that will be touched upon by each candidate, but also the order in which they will be addressed.
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来源期刊
Journal of Theoretical Politics
Journal of Theoretical Politics POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
2.10
自引率
10.00%
发文量
19
期刊介绍: The Journal of Theoretical Politics is an international journal one of whose principal aims is to foster the development of theory in the study of political processes. It provides a forum for the publication of original papers seeking to make genuinely theoretical contributions to the study of politics. The journal includes rigorous analytical articles on a range of theoretical topics. In particular, it focuses on new theoretical work which is broadly accessible to social scientists and contributes to our understanding of political processes. It also includes original syntheses of recent theoretical developments in diverse fields.
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