Estimating school provision, access and costs from local pupil counts under decentralised governance

Abstract This study proposes a sequence of methods to obtain geolocated estimates of primary school provision, costs, and access. This sequence entails: (1) location-allocation, an approach that mimics school location patterns in case of decentralised governance, such as exists in the EU and UK; (2) balanced floating catchment areas, an approach to assign pupils to schools assuming free school choice; and (3) school costs estimates, which are induced from pupil counts and the distributional properties of observed school costs. The method is fine-tuned using observed school locations and school-level costs data. It is developed to assess how much local population densities and demography affects school access and schooling costs across Europe. Its results can be aggregated by degree of urbanisation to quantify the differences across human settlements ranging from mostly uninhabited areas to densely populated cities.