影响沙特阿拉伯王国通货膨胀率的因素:1980年至2016年的标准研究

Zakiah Al-Ofi
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摘要

本研究旨在确定影响沙特阿拉伯王国1980-2016年期间通货膨胀率的因素。为了达到研究目的,研究者采用了适合这一现象的描述性分析模型。选择了一组预计会影响沙特经济通货膨胀率的变量。这些变量是:货币供给增长率,GDP进口,石油价格增长率,汇率,收入增长率,美元利率和物价水平。此外,基于一系列沙特经济通胀威慑数据(1980-2016),建立了标准模型。研究人员还使用EViews程序处理变量之间的关系,以获得最佳结果。研究得出以下结论:通货膨胀率与货币供应量增长率、国内生产总值进口额和物价总水平之间存在直接关系。而货币供应增长率对通货膨胀的影响最大,其次是GDP的进口,另一方面,与两种汇率呈反比关系。同时,其余的变量,油价增长率,收入增长率,美元利率对沙特阿拉伯的通货膨胀率没有影响。
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Factors Affecting Inflation Rates in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: A standard study from 1980 to 2016
This study aimed at identifying the factors affecting inflation rates in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for the period (1980-2016). To achieve the study purpose, the researcher adopted the descriptive analytical model as it suits this phenomenon. A group of variables that are expected to affect the inflation rate in the Saudi economy is selected. These variables are: money supply growth rate, imports of GDP, oil price growth rate, rate of exchange, income growth rate interest rate on the dollar and generate price level. Besides that, a standard model was built based on a series of data of inflation determents for the Saudi economy (1980-2016). The researcher also used the EViews program to tackle the relation among the variables and to obtain the best results. The study reached the following set of results: There is a direct relation between the inflation rate and money supply growth rate, imports of GDP, and general price level. Whereas the money supply growth rate has the strongest impact on inflation followed by imports of GDP, on the other hand, there is an inverse relation with both exchange rate. Meanwhile, the rest of the variables, oil price growth rate, income growth rate, and interest rate on the dollar have no effect on the inflation rate in Saudi Arabia.
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