经济政策的不确定性如何应对永久性和暂时性冲击?

IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2023-10-09 DOI:10.1111/boer.12424
Yoshito Funashima
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引用次数: 0

摘要

广泛使用的经济政策不确定性指数依赖于报纸报道的字数,可能会受到媒体报道偏差的影响。本实证研究探讨了经济政策不确定性指数对永久性和过渡性冲击的反应,并使用结构性向量自回归模型进行了识别。我们发现经济政策不确定性指数对永久性冲击的反应过度,这表明媒体报道存在暂时性过度。具体来说,我们证明了该指数对永久性冲击的负面和短暂反应,随后是反向和长期反应。然而,短暂冲击对该指数的负面和短暂影响较为温和。
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How does economic policy uncertainty respond to permanent and transitory shocks?

The widely used economic policy uncertainty index relies on newspaper reports' word count and may be influenced by media coverage biases. This empirical study explores the response of the economic policy uncertainty index to permanent and transitory shocks, which are identified using a structural vector autoregressive model. We find an overreaction in the economic policy uncertainty index to a permanent shock, suggesting media reporting's temporary overeagerness. Specifically, we demonstrate that the index responds negatively and transiently to a permanent shock, followed by reversed, prolonged responses. However, the negative and transient effects of a transitory shock on the index are milder.

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CiteScore
1.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
56
期刊介绍: The Bulletin of Economic Research is an international journal publishing articles across the entire field of economics, econometrics and economic history. The Bulletin contains original theoretical, applied and empirical work which makes a substantial contribution to the subject and is of broad interest to economists. We welcome submissions in all fields and, with the Bulletin expanding in new areas, we particularly encourage submissions in the fields of experimental economics, financial econometrics and health economics. In addition to full-length articles the Bulletin publishes refereed shorter articles, notes and comments; authoritative survey articles in all areas of economics and special themed issues.
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