D. Ventosa-Santaulária, Raúl Cepeda-Suárez, Alejandro Romero-González
We analyze the effects of a major tax reduction and a doubling of the minimum wage in the Northern region of Mexico, using a synthetic control approach. This quasi-natural experiment allows us to isolate the impact of a 50% value-added tax cut, a 30% income tax (Impuesto Sobre la Renta, ISR) reduction, and a significant wage increase on economic growth. At the time, the minimum wage in the zone was approximately 5 USD per day (2023 values). Despite the wage doubling, our findings show notable economic growth, with gross state product increasing over 4% and surpassing 7% post-pandemic. These results underscore how targeted local fiscal policies can stimulate economic performance, offering valuable lessons for policy design in emerging economies.
我们使用综合控制方法分析了墨西哥北部地区重大减税和最低工资翻番的影响。这个准自然的实验使我们能够分离出50%的增值税削减、30%的所得税(Impuesto Sobre la Renta, ISR)削减和显著的工资增长对经济增长的影响。当时,该地区的最低工资约为每天5美元(2023年的价值)。尽管工资翻了一番,但我们的研究结果显示出显著的经济增长,国家生产总值在大流行后增长了4%以上,超过7%。这些结果强调了有针对性的地方财政政策如何能够刺激经济表现,为新兴经济体的政策设计提供了宝贵的经验。
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