Local government and small business revenue forecasting: evidence from a transition economy

This study examines the importance of governance quality of local government in small businesses’ future revenue growth forecasting accuracy. Forecasting errors are due to either overestimation or under-estimation. When local governance quality improves, transaction costs are eliminated, boosting firms’ actual performance up to the level forecast, thereby reducing overestimation. Also, when local governance quality improves, institutional trust (trust in government) and generalized trust (trust in strangers) improve, lifting the expectation of future performance to the actual level, thereby reducing under-estimation. We investigate these two mechanisms using a set of more than 250,000 small businesses in Vietnam using an instrumental variable approach to control for potential endogeneity. It is found that governance quality enhances forecasting accuracy by reducing under-estimation forecasting errors but, interestingly, without affecting overestimation errors. This paper is one of the first that links governance quality to business forecasting, indicating that local authorities can help local businesses make efficient resource preparation by improving their governance quality.