Prediction of Aircraft Arrival Runway Occupancy Time Based on Machine Learning

Abstract Wake re-categorization (RECAT) has been implemented to improve runway capacity, and consequently, aircraft arrival runway occupancy time has become a crucial factor influencing runway capacity. Accurate prediction of the runway occupancy time can assist controllers in determining aircraft separation, thereby enhancing the operational efficiency of the runway. In this study, the GA–PSO algorithm is utilized to optimize the Back Propagation neural network prediction model using Quick access recorder data from various domestic airports, achieving high-precision prediction. Additionally, the SHapley Additive explanation model is applied to quantify the effect of each characteristic parameter on the arrival runway occupancy time, resulting in the prediction of aircraft arrival runway occupancy time. This model can provide a foundation for improving runway operation efficiency and technical support for the design of airport runway and taxiway structure.