The Effect of Global Value Chain Participation on Carbon Embodied in Forest Product Exports: A Quasi-Natural Experiment from the Financial Crisis Shock

Abstract Reasonable assessment of the environmental benefits of integrating forest products into global value chains (GVCs) is important to promote sustainable development. Based on the forest product sector data for 41 countries from 2002 to 2014, this paper explores the impact of GVC participation on carbon embodied in exports using the 2008 financial crisis, a quasi-natural experiment of negative global value chain shocks. We found that deepening backward participation in forest product value chains led to more substantial increases in carbon emissions than did forward participation. Countries with large decreases in GVC participation reduced more carbon embodied in forest product exports after the financial crisis (relative to countries with small decreases) through a larger reduction in the scale of forest product exports, and a decrease in the growth rate of capital-intensive products as a result of the relative decline in capital investment. They increased the embodied carbon of exports through a decrease in the growth rate of skilled personnel. Strengthening the technology effect of GVCs with the guidance of skilled forestry personnel is a key way to decrease exported embodied carbon.