思想与展望:超越模式评估——结合实验与模型推进陆地生态系统科学

IF 3.9 2区 地球科学 Q1 ECOLOGY Biogeosciences Pub Date : 2023-09-06 DOI:10.5194/bg-20-3637-2023
Silvia Caldararu, Victor Rolo, Benjamin D. Stocker, Teresa E. Gimeno, Richard Nair
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要生态系统操纵实验是了解陆地生态系统对全球变化反应的有力工具,因为它们测量了真实生态系统中的真实反应,并产生了对因果关系的见解。然而,由于成本和劳动强度的限制,其范围在空间和时间上受到限制。这使得从这样的实验中归纳结果变得困难,这在局部尺度的过程理解和全球尺度的未来预测之间造成了概念上的差距。最近的努力已经看到了将此类实验与动态全球植被模型结合使用的结果,最常见的是评估全球变化驱动因素下的模型预测。然而,将模型和实验结合起来,有更大的潜力。在这里,我们讨论工作流的价值和潜力,将生态系统实验与基于流程的模型一起使用,以增强两者的潜力。我们建议可以在实验开始之前使用模型来产生假设,确定数据需求,并在一般情况下指导实验设计。当模型受到观测的充分约束时,还可以预测难以经常测量或根本无法测量的变量,并且与数据一起,它们可以提供更完整的生态系统状态图景。最后,模型可以通过提供一个框架来帮助在空间和时间上概括实验结果,在这个框架中,可以纳入从现场级实验中获得的过程理解。我们还讨论了在形式化模型-数据集成框架中使用可操作实验和模型进行参数估计和模型选择的可能性,这是由于越来越多的生态系统实验和不同的观测流而成为可能。这里提出的想法可以为未来的实验模型研究提供路线图。
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Ideas and perspectives: Beyond model evaluation – combining experiments and models to advance terrestrial ecosystem science
Abstract. Ecosystem manipulative experiments are a powerful tool to understand terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change because they measure real responses in real ecosystems and yield insights into causal relationships. However, their scope is limited in space and time due to cost and labour intensity. This makes generalising results from such experiments difficult, which creates a conceptual gap between local-scale process understanding and global-scale future predictions. Recent efforts have seen results from such experiments used in combination with dynamic global vegetation models, most commonly to evaluate model predictions under global change drivers. However, there is much more potential in combining models and experiments. Here, we discuss the value and potential of a workflow for using ecosystem experiments together with process-based models to enhance the potential of both. We suggest that models can be used prior to the start of an experiment to generate hypotheses, identify data needs, and in general guide experimental design. Models, when adequately constrained with observations, can also predict variables which are difficult to measure frequently or at all, and together with the data they can provide a more complete picture of ecosystem states. Finally, models can be used to help generalise the experimental results in space and time, by providing a framework in which process understanding derived from site-level experiments can be incorporated. We also discuss the potential for using manipulative experiments together with models in formalised model–data integration frameworks for parameter estimation and model selection, a path made possible by the increasing number of ecosystem experiments and diverse observation streams. The ideas presented here can provide a roadmap to future experiment–model studies.
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来源期刊
Biogeosciences
Biogeosciences 环境科学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
8.60
自引率
8.20%
发文量
258
审稿时长
4.2 months
期刊介绍: Biogeosciences (BG) is an international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and discussion of research articles, short communications and review papers on all aspects of the interactions between the biological, chemical and physical processes in terrestrial or extraterrestrial life with the geosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere. The objective of the journal is to cut across the boundaries of established sciences and achieve an interdisciplinary view of these interactions. Experimental, conceptual and modelling approaches are welcome.
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