降息对企业投资的影响:实物期权模型

IF 1.3 4区 数学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI:10.1002/asmb.2830
Nan-Wei Han, Mao-Wei Hung, I-Shin Wu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们提出了一个制度转换的实物期权模型,以研究金融危机发生时削减利率对企业投资的影响。降息会降低投资项目的门槛率。门槛利率的降低与降息幅度和金融危机的持续时间呈正相关。在金融危机状态下,由于利率下调会降低资本成本和立即投资的机会成本,因此门槛利率会变得更低。在本研究的数值分析中,我们发现机会成本的变化占了跨栏利率变化的大部分。考虑到企业的融资约束,我们发现,对于流动性高的企业来说,降低利率会加速投资。然而,对于流动性低的企业来说,最佳投资门槛并不受利率变化的影响。相反,低流动性企业的投资受到信贷供应摩擦变化的影响。
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The effect of cutting interest rates on corporate investments: A real options model

We propose a real options model with regime shifts to investigate the effect of cutting interest rates on corporate investments when a financial crisis occurs. Cutting interest rates would lower the investment project's hurdle rate. The reduction in hurdle rate is positively related to the magnitude of interest rate cuts and the persistence of the financial crisis. The hurdle rate becomes lower in the financial crisis state because the reduction in interest rate would lower the cost of capital and the opportunity cost of immediate investment. In the numerical analysis of this study, we show that the change in the opportunity cost accounts for most of the change in the hurdle rate. Upon taking into consideration the firm's financing constraints, we find that cutting interest rates accelerates investments for firms with high liquidity. However, for firms with low liquidity, the optimal investment threshold is not affected by the variation in interest rates. Instead, the investments of low-liquidity firms are affected by the change in the friction of credit supply.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
67
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: ASMBI - Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry (formerly Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis) was first published in 1985, publishing contributions in the interface between stochastic modelling, data analysis and their applications in business, finance, insurance, management and production. In 2007 ASMBI became the official journal of the International Society for Business and Industrial Statistics (www.isbis.org). The main objective is to publish papers, both technical and practical, presenting new results which solve real-life problems or have great potential in doing so. Mathematical rigour, innovative stochastic modelling and sound applications are the key ingredients of papers to be published, after a very selective review process. The journal is very open to new ideas, like Data Science and Big Data stemming from problems in business and industry or uncertainty quantification in engineering, as well as more traditional ones, like reliability, quality control, design of experiments, managerial processes, supply chains and inventories, insurance, econometrics, financial modelling (provided the papers are related to real problems). The journal is interested also in papers addressing the effects of business and industrial decisions on the environment, healthcare, social life. State-of-the art computational methods are very welcome as well, when combined with sound applications and innovative models.
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