Water resource optimization bi-level coupling model and carrying capacity of a typical plateau basin based on interval uncertainty stochastic programming

Abstract The bi-level programming coupling model of uncertainty constraints and interval parameter programming is developed to optimize the allocation of water resources and conduct a comprehensive analysis of water resource carrying capacity. The model uses an uncertainty credibility number set and interval value to deal with uncertain factors, and analyses the water resources allocation of Longchuan River in central Yunnan. The competition mechanism and polynomial variation improved algorithm are used to analyze the water consumption, economic benefits and satisfaction in different planning periods when λ = 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0. The results show that the uncertain bi-level coupling model can cause changes in water allocation, pollutant discharge, system efficiency, etc., and can also effectively balance the mutual constraints between economic benefits and environmental pollution discharge, ensuring a good development trend in the planning year. The water diversion from other basins such as the Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project was transferred to Longchuan River Basin to increase the water supply, and the carrying capacity was further improved, with an increase of water resources by 25.9%. The model research has certain practical and strategic significance for maintaining the sustainable development of the ecological environment in the Longchuan River Basin