战略清晰度与台湾民众对美国安全承诺的信心

IF 1.3 4区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Asian Survey Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.1525/as.2023.2017828
T.Y. Wang, Su-feng Chen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

批评人士警告说,如此明确的承诺可能会增强台湾公民对美国防务承诺的信心,这可能会鼓励台北追求独立。本研究使用威慑理论与面板调查数据来检验这一论点。调查结果支持了批评人士的担忧,即拜登的安全承诺增加了台湾公民对华盛顿安全保障的信心。然而,在2021年至2022年期间,公众的整体信心有所下降,这可以归因于支持独立的公民的观点发生了转变,因为他们担心俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后中国领导层变得更加大胆。在目睹了美国对乌克兰的安全援助后,支持乌克兰独立的人士可能已经认识到华盛顿安全承诺的不确定性,并调整了他们的预期。
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Strategic Clarity and Taiwanese Citizens’ Confidence in the US Security Commitment
President Biden’s remarks that his administration is willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan appear to be a significant deviation from Washington’s long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity.” Critics warn that such a clear pledge is likely to bolster Taiwanese citizens’ confidence in America’s defense commitment, which may encourage Taipei’s pursuit of independence. This study uses deterrence theory with panel survey data to examine this argument. The results support critics’ concerns that Biden’s security pledges have increased Taiwanese citizens’ confidence in Washington’s security assurance. However, the public’s overall confidence declined between 2021 and 2022, which can be attributed to the shifting views of pro-independence citizens due to their concern about a Chinese leadership emboldened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After witnessing America’s security assistance to Ukraine, independence supporters may have recognized the uncertain nature of Washington’s security commitment and adjusted their expectations.
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来源期刊
Asian Survey
Asian Survey AREA STUDIES-
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
22.20%
发文量
38
期刊介绍: The only academic journal of its kind produced in the United States, Asian Survey provides a comprehensive retrospective of contemporary international relations within South, Southeast, and East Asian nations. As the Asian community’s matrix of activities becomes increasingly complex, it is essential to have a sourcebook for sound analysis of current events, governmental policies, socio-economic development, and financial institutions. In Asian Survey you’ll find that sourcebook. Asian Survey consistently publishes articles by leading American and foreign scholars, whose views supplement and contest meanings disseminated by the media.
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