A Prediction Model for Neonatal Coarctation Repair Involving Fetal and Neonatal Echocardiographic Parameters

Objective. The aim of this study is to investigate the predictive value of fetal and neonatal echocardiographic parameters for neonatal coarctation repair in fetuses suspected of coarctation of the aorta (CoA), establish a prediction model for neonatal coarctation repair, and verify its predictive effectiveness and clinical applicability. Methods. From September 2017 to September 2022, fetuses suspected with CoA were enrolled. They were divided into two groups based on the need for neonatal coarctation repair. Fetal and neonatal echocardiographic parameters and clinical characteristics were collected retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were applied to select significant predictors, which were further used to establish the nomogram prediction model. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was employed to quantify its discrimination ability. The calibration curve was drawn for internal verification, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC) were used to evaluate the clinical applicability of the prediction model. Results. This study included 50 infants suspected of CoA prenatally, of which 16 (32%) received aortic coarctation repair in the neonatal period and 34 (68%) did not. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that the fetal echocardiographic parameter aortic isthmus/ductus arteriosus (AoI/DA) diameter ratio and the neonatal echocardiographic parameters such as the distance from left common carotid to left subclavian artery (LCSA) and the diameter of distal transverse aortic arch (DTAA) were independent predictors for neonatal coarctation repair. The ROC curve of the model showed excellent predictive value (AUC = 0.943). The calibration curve of the prediction model exhibited good fitness. The DCA and CIC demonstrated that the model had good clinical utility. Conclusion. The prediction model, which combines the fetal echocardiographic parameter AoI/DA diameter ratio and the neonatal echocardiographic parameters distance of LCSA and DTAA diameter, has an exceptional level of clinical value and prediction accuracy.