赤字总统:赤字有历史回报吗?

Vincent Geloso, Marcus Shera
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引用次数: 1

摘要

布坎南和瓦格纳指出,赤字和盈余的政治回报不对称,前者比后者更可取。他们将这种不对称现象的出现归因于凯恩斯主义思想的普及。我们通过对1948年以来美国总统的历史声誉调查来检验这两种说法。长期以来,历史声誉一直是总统们关心的事情,它们是评估他们的声誉是因赤字而受损还是受益的可靠方法。我们发现有证据表明,赤字的规模往往与总统的得分较高有关,而且这种影响在凯恩斯主义思想更受欢迎的近期调查中更为明显。
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Presidents in deficit: are there historical rewards to deficits?
Buchanan and Wagner pointed to an asymmetry in the political rewards of deficits and surpluses, with the former being preferable to the latter. They assigned the rise of this asymmetry to the popularization of Keynesian ideas. We test both claims by relying on the historical reputation surveys of US presidents since 1948. Historical reputations have long been something presidents have cared about, and they constitute a reliable way to assess whether their reputations suffer or gain from having run deficits. We find evidence that the size of deficits tends to be associated with greater presidential scores and that this effect is stronger in more recent surveys, when Keynesian ideas were more popular.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.00
自引率
33.30%
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