能源部门转型及其对能源结构的影响:以日本为例

Igor J. Mitroczuk
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摘要

日本被认为是一个有趣的来源,可以借鉴有用的经验教训,有助于起草波兰能源结构转型的进程。原因很简单:两国的起点相对相似。日本能源结构中很大一部分仍以化石燃料为基础。我们已经可以观察到,人们正在缓慢但明显地远离化石燃料(从2013年的85%左右降至2019年的不到75%)。日本与波兰情况相关的另一个原因是,日本新政府在福岛灾难后最近决定恢复核能。日本未来道路上其他有趣的解决方案包括氢和氨的广泛使用;这对波兰来说可能很有趣,因为它是一个主要的氢气生产国:世界第五,欧洲第三。目前生产的是灰氢,但使用分布式太阳能装置可以很容易地将其转化为绿色氢。在波兰,似乎也没有人认真研究氨在能源部门的使用。仅这些原因就足以选择日本作为以下分析的国家,因此文献综述仅限于日本领域。对能源结构配置的简短历史回顾之后,列举了波兰条件下需要考虑的重要方面:能源安全和能源效率,然后分析了重要的能源来源:核能、可再生能源(RES)、氢、氨以及火电开发。
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Transformation of the Energy Sector and Consequences for the Energy Mix: A Case Study of Japan
Abstract Japan is regarded as an interesting source for drawing useful lessons that could help in drafting the process for transforming the Polish energy mix. The reason is very simple: the two countries have relatively similar starting points. A large proportion of the Japanese energy mix is still based on fossil fuels. We can already observe a slow but evident drift away from fossil fuels (from some 85% in 2013 to less than 75% in 2019). Another reason why Japan is relevant to the Polish conditions is the recent decision of the new government in Japan to return to nuclear energy after the Fukushima disaster. Other interesting solutions in the Japanese way forward include the wide use of hydrogen and ammonia; that could be interesting for Poland, because it is a major producer of hydrogen: the fifth in the world and the third in Europe. Grey hydrogen is currently produced, but that could easily be transformed into green hydrogen produced using distributed solar installations. It also seems that nobody in Poland is seriously working on the use of ammonia in the energy sector. Those reasons alone would be enough to choose Japan as the country for the analysis presented below, therefore the literature review is limited to the Japanese sphere. A short historical view of the energy-mix configuration is followed by an enumeration of the important aspects to consider for Polish conditions: energy security and energy efficiency, followed by an analysis of important sources of energy: nuclear, renewable energy sources (RES), hydrogen, and ammonia as well as thermal power development.
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