通过建模专家决策来获取信息先验

IF 2.5 4区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2023-09-15 DOI:10.1287/deca.2023.0046
Julia R. Falconer, Eibe Frank, Devon L. L. Polaschek, Chaitanya Joshi
{"title":"通过建模专家决策来获取信息先验","authors":"Julia R. Falconer, Eibe Frank, Devon L. L. Polaschek, Chaitanya Joshi","doi":"10.1287/deca.2023.0046","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"There are significant limitations to current methods for eliciting the prior beliefs of experts. To combat some of these limitations, this paper proposes an alternative approach that infers an expert’s prior beliefs about an uncertain event, A, from the expert’s past decisions. We show that an analyst can use past information on an expert’s decision-making task, contingent on an expert’s prior of A, to model the decision-making process and infer an approximation of the prior for A. This concept is illustrated by an application to recidivism. We conclude this work by highlighting important directions for future research. Funding: J. R. Falconer’s research is funded through the University of Waikato Doctoral Scholarship.","PeriodicalId":46460,"journal":{"name":"Decision Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Eliciting Informative Priors by Modeling Expert Decision Making\",\"authors\":\"Julia R. Falconer, Eibe Frank, Devon L. L. Polaschek, Chaitanya Joshi\",\"doi\":\"10.1287/deca.2023.0046\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"There are significant limitations to current methods for eliciting the prior beliefs of experts. To combat some of these limitations, this paper proposes an alternative approach that infers an expert’s prior beliefs about an uncertain event, A, from the expert’s past decisions. We show that an analyst can use past information on an expert’s decision-making task, contingent on an expert’s prior of A, to model the decision-making process and infer an approximation of the prior for A. This concept is illustrated by an application to recidivism. We conclude this work by highlighting important directions for future research. Funding: J. R. Falconer’s research is funded through the University of Waikato Doctoral Scholarship.\",\"PeriodicalId\":46460,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Decision Analysis\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-09-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Decision Analysis\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2023.0046\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"管理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"MANAGEMENT\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Decision Analysis","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2023.0046","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MANAGEMENT","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

目前用于引出专家的先验信念的方法有很大的局限性。为了克服这些限制,本文提出了一种替代方法,即从专家过去的决策中推断专家对不确定事件A的先验信念。我们表明,分析师可以利用专家决策任务的过去信息,根据专家对A的先验,对决策过程进行建模,并推断出A的先验近似值。最后,我们强调了未来研究的重要方向。资助:j.r. Falconer的研究由怀卡托大学博士奖学金资助。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Eliciting Informative Priors by Modeling Expert Decision Making
There are significant limitations to current methods for eliciting the prior beliefs of experts. To combat some of these limitations, this paper proposes an alternative approach that infers an expert’s prior beliefs about an uncertain event, A, from the expert’s past decisions. We show that an analyst can use past information on an expert’s decision-making task, contingent on an expert’s prior of A, to model the decision-making process and infer an approximation of the prior for A. This concept is illustrated by an application to recidivism. We conclude this work by highlighting important directions for future research. Funding: J. R. Falconer’s research is funded through the University of Waikato Doctoral Scholarship.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis MANAGEMENT-
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
21.10%
发文量
19
期刊最新文献
Measuring and Mitigating the Risk of Advanced Cyberattackers On the Value of Information Across Decision Problems Curbing the Opioid Crisis: Optimal Dynamic Policies for Preventive and Mitigating Interventions From the Editor: 2023 Clemen–Kleinmuntz Decision Analysis Best Paper Award A Behavioral Model of Responsible Sourcing in Supply Chains: The Role of Dual-Sourcing Bias
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1