Long-Term Recurrence Pattern and Stress Transfer along the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece: Implications in Seismic Hazard Evaluation

An effort is exerted to investigate the recurrence pattern of large earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6.0) in the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece, by considering the incorporation of the 74-year (1948–2022) evolving stress field. Four earthquake occurrence models—the Poisson, Poisson with the incorporation of the static stress changes (Poisson + ΔCFF), Brownian passage time (BPT) and Brownian passage time with the incorporation of the static stress changes (BPT + ΔCFF)—have been applied to estimate the occurrence probabilities of nearly characteristic earthquakes for the seven fault segments of the study area. The mean recurrence time, Tr, is estimated using the physics-based seismic moment rate conservation method. The results show large variability depending upon fault parameters. Incorporating the state of stress into Tr results in both advanced and delayed recurrence patterns. The occurrence probability estimates for the next 10, 20 and 30 years indicate that the fault segment most likely to be ruptured is the Paliki North fault segment in all models. Overall, the occurrence probabilities, combined with the state of stress along the fault segments, emphasize the high seismic moment rate of the study area. The application of time-dependent models (BPT, BPT + ΔCFF) resulted in significant increases or decreases in the associated seismic hazard.