Germany’s Triangular Relations with the United States and China in the Era of the Zeitenwende

ABSTRACTRussia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted a historic turning point (Zeitenwende) in Germany. This Zeitenwende has included a caesura in Berlin’s dealings with Moscow. But what about the ripple effects on Germany’s relations with its crucial security guarantor, the United States, and its most important trading partner, China? This article investigates Germany’s triangular relations with the US and China respectively in light of the ‘Russia factor’. It does so through the theoretical lens of the so-called Strategic Triangle Approach (STA) and the notion of ‘dual triangles’. The analysis reveals that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has triggered an amplification of previously existing trends, in that German–US ties have been further strengthened whereas the German–Chinese relationship has become fraught with additional tensions. This has led to a state of affairs whereby Germany’s long-held rationale of staying on friendly terms with both superpowers is now being put to the test like never before since the turn of the millennium. Even more importantly, however, an STA-grounded assessment of Germany’s current situation also demonstrates that even – or especially – in the era of Zeitenwende, the country may be well-advised to maintain an overall cooperative course vis-à-vis China – if indeed that is possible. DISCLOSURE STATEMENTNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Additional informationNotes on contributorsSebastian BibaSebastian Biba is a Senior Researcher at the Institute of Political Science at Goethe University Frankfurt and an Associate with the Institute of Asian Studies at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) in Hamburg. In the past, he held visiting positions at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), the University of Sydney, and Peking University. His research on Europe/Germany–US–China triangular relations has appeared in leading IR and Area Studies journals, including International Affairs, Journal of Chinese Political Science, and European Foreign Affairs Review. Additionally, Sebastian is the (co-)editor of two books on the topic.