军事冲突后恢复社会经济发展的国外经验的实施方向与展望

Volodymyr А. Mukhin, Nadiia V. Bielikova
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摘要

就战争期间的破坏规模、人民参与敌对行动和战后恢复的速度而言,最强大的经验之一是经历了第二次世界大战的国家的经验。除了马歇尔计划,历史上还有其他几个成功的战后社会经济发展复苏的例子,被战争摧毁的潜力的回归,以及战后经济现代化的成功。在这方面,进一步深化需要研究在乌克兰现实中实施外国战后经验的方向和前景,也需要寻找解决这一进程中可能出现的问题的方法。本文的目的是总结国外战后经济复苏的经验,并分析战后经济复苏在乌克兰及其地区实施的可能性。对韩国、日本和德国战后复苏的机制和特点进行了分析,并确定所有国家的共同点是将国际援助(其透明和有效的使用)与建立与国家社会经济制度相对应的战后复苏的具体国家机制相结合。事实证明,对损失的不断监测和评估表明,乌克兰不太可能靠自己的力量弥补重大损失。从积极的方面来说,捐助者的支持是上述分析的国家战后恢复的成功因素之一。人们确定,战后经济遭受重大损失并不意味着战后复苏不可能有效。相反,在战后时期成功恢复的外国的经验表明,足够数额的捐助者援助和透明的援助使用机制是在质量上新的基础上恢复工业和提高整个经济效率的关键。事实证明,乌克兰的有效战后恢复计划必须考虑到国家和区域特点,例如,在确定第一级恢复的优先事项- -具有创新竞争潜力的工业时。在战后复苏的过程中,经济模式应该改变,使其每一个组成部分现代化,这将确保其效率和抵御未来外部和内部挑战的能力。
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Directions and Prospects for the Implementation of Foreign Experience in the Restoration of Socioeconomic Development after Military Conflicts
One of the most powerful in terms of the scale of destruction during the war, the involvement of the population in hostilities and the speed of post-war recovery is the experience of countries that went through World War II. In addition to the Marshall Plan, history has several other examples of successful post-war recovery of socioeconomic development, the return of the potential destroyed by the war, as well as the successful post-war modernization of the economy. In this regard, some further deepening requires research on the directions and prospects for the implementation of foreign post-war experience in the realities of Ukraine, also the search for ways to address possible problematic issues that will accompany this process. The aim of the article is to generalize the foreign experience of post-war economic recovery and analyze the possibilities of its implementation in Ukraine and its regions in the post-war period. An analysis of the mechanisms and features of the post-war recovery of South Korea, Japan, and Germany is carried out and it is determined that the common point for all countries is the combination of international assistance (its transparent and effective use) and the creation of the country-specific mechanisms for post-war recovery, corresponding to national socioeconomic institutions. It is substantiated that the ongoing monitoring and assessment of losses indicate significant damage, which Ukraine is unlikely to be able to compensate for on its own. On the positive side, the availability of donor support is one of the success factors in the post-war recovery of the countries analyzed above. It is determined that the presence of significant losses to the economy after the war does not mean that post-war recovery cannot be effective. On the contrary, the experience of foreign countries that successfully recovered in the post-war period shows that sufficient amounts of donor assistance and a transparent mechanism for its use is the key to the recovery of industry on a qualitatively new basis and an increase in the efficiency of the economy as a whole compared to the pre-war period. It is proved that an effective post-war recovery plan for Ukraine must necessarily take into account national and regional characteristics, for example, when determining priorities for the first-order recovery – industries that have innovative competitive potential. In the process of post-war recovery, the model of the economy should change by modernizing each of its components, which will ensure its efficiency and resilience to external and internal challenges in the future.
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